2026 Senate Poll Shows Lara Trump Surging Ahead Of Thom Tillis

North Carolina’s 2026 Senate race may still be two years away, but a new poll suggests that political tides in the state are already shifting. Lara Trump, the daughter-in-law of President-elect Donald Trump, is emerging as a top contender to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), with grassroots conservatives rallying behind her candidacy.

A poll conducted by Victory Insights over Thanksgiving week revealed that Lara commands a commanding 65% support among Republican primary voters, compared to Tillis’s meager 11%. The poll showed a growing demand within the GOP for candidates closely aligned with Donald Trump’s policies and political brand.

While Tillis, a two-term senator, has built a reputation as a centrist willing to work across party lines, many within the party view him as insufficiently loyal to Trump’s agenda. The poll indicates that this sentiment is driving support for Lara Trump, a political newcomer who has leveraged her family ties and high-profile campaign roles to cultivate significant influence within the Republican base.

However, the data also shows challenges for the GOP. In hypothetical general election matchups, both Trump and Tillis trail Democratic candidate Roy Cooper, the state’s outgoing governor, by narrow margins—1.2% for Trump and 1.1% for Tillis. Cooper’s enduring popularity, bolstered by his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and bipartisan appeal, positions him as a formidable opponent.

“The only metric in which Tillis outperforms Lara Trump is [favorability] among Democrats.” https://t.co/vJr3G8ewxT

— Ben Galbraith (@_BenGalbraith) December 2, 2024

One area where Lara Trump shows promise is among independent voters. The poll indicates that she outperforms Tillis with this critical demographic, winning indies by 41.1% compared to Tillis’s 40.6%. Analysts suggest that her ability to turn out low-propensity Trump supporters—voters who don’t typically participate in midterms—could tip the scales in a close race.

The prospect of a divisive Republican primary has raised concerns among party strategists. A bruising contest between Trump and Tillis could weaken the eventual nominee, giving Cooper an edge in the general election. For now, Lara Trump has not publicly expressed interest in running for the seat. Over the past month, Trump has been actively angling for the Florida Senate seat soon to be vacated by Marco Rubio, who has been nominated as the next Secretary of State.

“Fresh off the heels of Donald Trump winning the state by more than 3%, some North Carolina Republicans are chomping at the bit to replace incumbent Republican US Senator Thom Tillis with someone who they believe will be more loyal to President Trump,” noted Ben Galbraith, Senior Pollster at Victory Insights. “Mark Robinson’s name has been discussed quite a bit, but although he could certainly mount a formidable Republican primary election challenge to Tillis, he has continually denied any speculation that he’s interested in running. Okay, so if not Mark Robinson, then whom?”

“If Republicans hope to win, they need a candidate who can fundraise on par with the Democrats, make it through the primary election unscathed, and win over nonpartisan and middle-of-the-road voters,” said Galbraith. “Our new poll finds that Lara Trump – President Trump’s daughter-in-law, campaign advisor, and co-chair of the RNC – could be just the right person for the job.”

At the Washington Post’s 2024 Global Women’s Summit last month, Lara Trump said, “If I am appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis and he feels that I’m the right fit to take over the U.S. Senate seat for Marco Rubio, those are big shoes to fill, but I would take it very seriously.”

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