NEW: Top Forecaster Moves Blue State From ‘Lean Democrat’ To ‘Toss-Up’

With just days remaining before the 2024 presidential election, a major shift in the electoral forecast has turned heads. RealClearPolitics, a leading political analysis and polling aggregation site, has moved New Hampshire from the “Lean Democrat” category to the more uncertain “Toss-Up” status.

The growing uncertainty for the Democratic ticket comes as the election reaches its final stretch, as the change has added pressure to an already tight race as both campaigns scramble to lock down key battleground states. New Hampshire has long been considered a small but influential player in presidential elections, known for its independent-minded voters who frequently swing between parties.

According to RealClearPolitics‘ latest forecast, the Granite State’s four electoral votes have now been reclassified as a toss-up. This is significant considering New Hampshire had previously been expected to lean toward Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running alongside Tim Walz. RealClearPolitics’ polling average still shows Harris leading in the state by 4.5 percentage points, but that margin has clearly narrowed in recent weeks, hinting at potential vulnerability for the Democratic ticket.

A recent poll from the New Hampshire Journal and Praecones Analytica, published Sunday evening, shows a tight race in the state, with former President Donald Trump actually leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 50.2% to 49.8%.

via RealClearPolling

“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” said Karoline Leavitt, a Trump national campaign spokesperson and New Hampshire native. “To my fellow Granite Staters who want to keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free — get out and vote for President Trump. Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would destroy New Hampshire and America forever.”

The last time New Hampshire voted Republican in a presidential election was in 2000 when George W. Bush narrowly won the state over Al Gore. Since then, New Hampshire has consistently voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election.

New Hampshire isn’t the only blue-leaning state under pressure. RealClearPolitics’ latest map shows a substantial portion of electoral votes in traditionally Democratic states now up for grabs. Alongside New Hampshire, states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are classified as toss-ups. The block of states, totaling 108 electoral votes, could swing either way and ultimately decide the election.

The Democratic ticket has 211 electoral votes from states that are likely or leaning in Harris’s favor. The “Likely Harris” category includes Colorado (10), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), Oregon (8), and Maine’s 1st Congressional District (1), totaling 52 electoral votes. “Leans Harris” adds another 20 from Maine (2), New Mexico (5), and Virginia (13). However, even with these numbers, Harris is still far from the required 270 votes, meaning the toss-up states will be pivotal.

On the Republican side, Trump and Vance have 219 electoral votes, putting them in a strong position to reach the 270-vote threshold. “Leans Trump” states include Florida (30), Ohio (17), Texas (40), and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (1), contributing a total of 88 electoral votes. Meanwhile, “Likely Trump” states such as Alaska (3), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), and South Carolina (9) add another 38. The GOP is aggressively pursuing additional support in toss-up states, betting on messages of economic recovery and strong leadership.

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