JUST IN: Kamala Falls Behind With Demographic That Could Cost Her A Key State, Poll Shows

With just days to go before Election Day, a recent poll from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) shows a concerning trend for Vice President Kamala Harris among Muslim voters—a demographic that could hold sway in crucial battlegrounds like Michigan.

According to CAIR’s latest data, Green Party nominee Jill Stein now edges out Harris, leading with 42.3% of Muslim voter support compared to Harris’s 41%, a statistical tie that reflects the close competition witnessed in CAIR’s August poll.

Conducted between October 30 and 31 among 1,449 verified Muslim voters, the poll suggests Harris’s grip on this traditionally Democratic voter base may be slipping. While the shift is narrow, it shows an intensifying challenge for the Harris campaign as Michigan’s Muslim population could swing the state’s outcome. Stein’s lead, albeit slight, is an increase in Green Party support that could siphon away Democratic votes in regions where the race is razor-thin.

If Stein maintains this level of support among Muslim voters, it could easily cost Harris the state of Michigan.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has retained nearly 10% of the Muslim vote, showing little movement since August. The Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver registered 0.6% support. With only 5% of respondents indicating they do not plan to vote and almost no undecideds remaining, the Harris campaign faces the uphill task of regaining traction in a race where every vote will count.

CAIR National Executive Director Nihad Awad said in a statement, “This final national poll of American Muslim voters confirms that our community members are deeply engaged in the 2024 election, with 95 percent saying they plan to turn out to vote.”

“The poll also confirms that opposition to U.S. support for the war on Gaza continues to play a major role in influencing Muslim voter preferences,” Awad continued. “Our message for American Muslims is simple: regardless of who you plan to support, it is essential that you turn out to vote. Do not sit on the sidelines. Make your voices heard and show the strength of our community in states across our nation.”

Affairs Director Robert McCaw added a similar feeling, saying, “Since CAIR’s last poll in late August, both Dr. Jill Stein and Vice President Harris have consolidated support among American Muslim voters and remain nearly tied at 42 percent and 41 percent while former president Donald Trump’s support remains static 10 percent.”

“The significant drop in support for major presidential candidates compared to 2020 and 2016 is almost certainly a result of community concerns regarding the genocide in Gaza. We encourage all presidential candidates to address the concerns of Muslim voters in these final days of the campaign, and we encourage all American Muslim voters to turn out regardless of who they support,” McCaw concluded.

Michigan is a crucial swing state in U.S. presidential elections, often playing a decisive role due to its substantial electoral votes and historical tendency to swing between parties in tight races. As a part of the Rust Belt, Michigan has seen economic shifts that have made its voters particularly sensitive to issues like job security, healthcare, and social policies. Winning Michigan is often seen as essential for any candidate aiming for victory, as it can offset losses in other swing states and provide a foothold in the Midwest.

The state is also home to one of the largest Muslim populations in the United States, especially concentrated in and around cities like Dearborn and Detroit. Michigan’s Muslim voters, who are diverse in ethnicity, immigration background, and socioeconomic status, have become a significant electoral bloc. They tend to vote in high numbers, often favoring candidates who address policies impacting Muslim-majority countries. This demographic has traditionally leaned Democratic, but recent shifts in voter sentiment indicate a growing openness to third-party options like the Green Party, especially if the candidate’s platform resonates with their specific concerns. In a closely contested state like Michigan, even a small shift in Muslim voter allegiance could have a major impact.

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