JUST IN: Top-Rated Pollster Finds Trump Within The Margin Of Error In Longtime Blue State

Brazil-based polling firm AtlasIntel — which has the distinction of being the most accurate pollster from the 2020 Election cycle — found Vice President Kamala Harris barely leading in a state that last went to a Republican presidential candidate in 1972.

AtlasIntel has remained in the field and released a number of polls in the final days leading up to the election. While the pollster has mostly focused on battleground states, they have expanded the map to include Virginia and Minnesota in recent days.

In its final poll before Election Day, Atlas found Trump leading with 49.2 percent of the vote nationally compared to 48.1 percent for Harris. Green Party candidate Jill Stein polled at 1.1 percent, a result that could prove catastrophic for Democrats if it comes to fruition.

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HEAD TO HEAD SCENARIO

The time series illustrates the stability of the race, with a slight improvement for Harris in the campaign's final stretch.

🔴 Trump: 50%
🔵 Harris: 48.8% pic.twitter.com/chGOKWZU1q

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024

In terms of battleground states, AtlasIntel found Trump leading by 5.1 percentage points in Arizona, 3.1 in Nevada, 2.1 in North Carolina, and 1.6 in Georgia. The margins were tighter in the so-called “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are widely viewed as must-wins for the Harris-Walz Campaign if Trump does indeed emerge victorious in the other four battlegrounds.

The pollster found Trump’s tightest margin in Wisconsin, were he leads by nine-tenths of a percent, followed by Pennsylvania, where the former president leads by one. Surprisingly, Trump expanded his lead in Michigan to 1.5, possibly thanks to the surge in support for Stein.

A recent poll from the Council on American-Islamic Relations Stein slightly leading Kamala Harris among Michigan’s sizable Muslim population.

“With these results, the contest remains open on the eve of Election Day. Pennsylvania emerges as the state most likely to decide the race, with its 19 electoral votes potentially securing the Electoral College majority for Trump,” AtlasIntel wrote in an X post after the results were released.

In a shocking turn of events, the pollster found Kamala Harris leading in Minnesota — the home state of her running mate — by just two percentage points. This result is within the margin of error for the state, which was pinned at three points.

AtlasIntel also found Harris-Walz with a comfortable lead in Virginia, where Trump held a rally in the campaign’s final days.

ATLAS POLLS – SWING STATES

Among the battleground states, Trump leads in Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, while narrowing the 2020 margins in Virginia and Minnesota. However, Georgia and Pennsylvania, two of the most valuable states in the Electoral College, are close. pic.twitter.com/MNZUcLXNSA

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 5, 2024

If Minnesota goes red, it would be the first time since Richard Nixon’s landslide win in 1972. The state was among the two states that went blue in Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984, thanks largely to the fact that it was the home state of Democratic Party nominee Walter Mondale.

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