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‘The Math Doesn’t Work’: CNN Analyst Gives Democrats Brutal Update As Election Day Progresses

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1 week ago

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A conservative election forecaster outlined the cold, hard math facing Democrats heading into Election Day after weeks of lackluster early voting numbers failed to notch significantly higher turnout numbers in the face of GOP enthusiasm.

Marc Lotter, chief communications officer for the America First Policy Institute, repeated facts laid out by Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt over the weekend indicating that urban and female turnout expected to benefit Vice President Kamala Harris and down-ballot Democrats has dampened compared to 2020. “The math doesn’t work” for big wins, Lotter said on a CNN panel late Monday night. “The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas.”

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Making matters worse, “They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters” while rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000, an electoral bloc that overwhelmingly favors former President Donald Trump, he explained. “Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day. The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states,” Lotter added.

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Turnout numbers in key swing states underscored the stark challenge facing Democrats. In Nevada, which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, Republicans embraced early voting to such a degree that early and vote-by-mail numbers surpassed Democrats in some instances, a worrying sign in a state that Harris was once expected to pick up easily. In Maricopa County, Arizona, more than two-thirds of Election Day voters coming out are for former President Donald Trump, according to Newsmax correspondent Alex Salvi. As of 11:40 a.m. EST, 23,919 Republicans had cast ballots on Election Day, representing 42.5% of the day’s total vote so far. In comparison, just 11,324 Democrats had voted in Maricopa County, home to the capital city of Phoenix, a smidge over 20% of all votes cast Tuesday.

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Those results were highlighted by Leavitt, the Trump spokeswoman, over the weekend in a media appearance. “Urban turnout is down compared to 2020,” she said on Fox Business. When a critic called her out for fabricating the numbers, Leavitt fact-checked the X user, citing numbers produced by a Democratic data analyst showing depressed Democratic turnout in the seven most hotly contested swing states.

The Republican National Committee has made good on its promise to deploy a “roving army of attorneys” across battleground states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where Republicans are challenging last-minute restrictions on poll watchers. Pittsburgh became the final stage for both Vice President Harris and President Trump as they held dueling get-out-the-vote rallies to energize their respective bases. An average of Pennsylvania polls gives Harris a 0.2% lead, but the two most recent polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight give Trump a single-point lead heading into Election Day.

As the odds of a Trump victory have inched higher, CNN — perhaps fearing a repeat of the freezing out they suffered under his first administration — has edged back to the center, using some of its primetime coverage to fact-check misinformation put out by the Harris campaign. Jake Tapper used his weekday afternoon show to rebuke the vice president for declaring President Trump does not “respect the freedom of women” while Dana Bash posited that Harris failed to “close the deal” during one of her final rallies where she cast her opponent as a “threat to democracy.” That narrative is failing to convince swing voters, insiders told Bash.

Harry Enten, the network’s venerable election forecaster, said recently that he sees a “blowout” scenario where President Trump wins all Sun Belt and “blue wall” states that include Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. “Of course, it could go in the other direction, whereby Trump wins all the key Great Lake Battleground states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, and he gets to 312 electoral votes. And that’s even better than Trump did in 2016!” he explained.

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