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JUST IN: Bellwether County’s Initial Results Foreshadow Big Day For One Candidate: ‘Something To Watch’

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2 weeks ago

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A Florida bellwether county that supported President Joe Biden is trending red as of Tuesday afternoon. If it does, it would likely put Florida well out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris and down-ballot Democrats like U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL).

Republican voters in Duval County, which has voted to the left of Georgia in modern times, are now outpacing Democrats, according to Florida’s Voice Assistant News Director Eric Daugherty. The county was lost by Trump in 2020 but four years later is once again trending in his direction. Over 41% of all ballots cast there are for Republicans, Daugherty reported on X, a net gain of 3.1%. Democrats have cobbled together just 38.4% of the vote, a startling drop from the 51% of Duval County voters who supported Biden in 2020. Uncommitted voters, independents, and those voting for five other presidential candidates on the ballot are taking up 17.5% of the vote, a segment that appears to be severely impacting Democrats. The result is “something to watch,” Daugherty observed.

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Recent polls have shown a steady lead for Trump in Florida for the entirety of the race against Harris, but the strength of Democrats down the ballot could help determine which party controls the Senate in 2025. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has led Rep. Mucarsel-Powell, albeit by a smaller margin than Trump, and would benefit greatly from Republican turnout in Duval County, home to the city of Jacksonville. Approximately half a million voters are up for grabs in total, 250,000 of which went for Biden while about 232,000 preferred Trump four years ago, according to News4JAX.

Senate Democrats have been salivating at the prospect of flipping Florida or Texas where Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is locked in a tight reelection campaign against Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX). There, most polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight have given the two-term Republican a 3- to 4-point lead, causing the Democratic National Senatorial Committee and outside groups to blanket the airwaves with millions of dollars in negative advertisements, some of which highlight Cruz’s 2021 Mexico vacation during the state’s calamitous winter blackouts. Election forecaster Nate Silver recently gave Republicans a 92% chance of winning Senate control, citing likely victories in West Virginia and Montana as all the GOP needs to pick up 51 seats. Other races where the party remains competitive are against incumbent Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey (D-PA) in Pennsylvania, and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) of Wisconsin.

For Trump, a victory in Duval County would signify the remarkable turnaround in fortunes he has experienced since leaving office. In a mirror image, Arizona’s Maricopa County now appears to be on track for a Republican victory after voting for Biden in 2020. Exit polls there are showing more than two-thirds of Election Day voters coming out for Trump. As of 11:40 a.m. EST, 23,919 Republicans have cast ballots on Election Day, representing 42.5% of the day’s total vote so far. In comparison, just 11,324 Democrats have voted in Maricopa County, home to the capital city of Phoenix, a smidge over 20% of all votes cast Tuesday. In Nevada’s Clark County, home to Las Vegas, Democrats have bled support from Biden’s 54% victory four years ago — today, Trump is leading in most recent polls by anywhere from 2 to 6 points.

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