Top Pollster Identifies Concerning Signs For Kamala, Democrats

As voters flood the polls on Election Day, the chief pollster at Echelon Insights, Patrick Ruffini, is issuing a stark warning for Democrats. Ruffini, known for his keen analysis of voter turnout trends, pointed to a troubling lack of positive news in early voting data for Democrats.

His comments, posted just hours before the polls close, are casting a shadow over the “cautious optimism” within the Harris campaign. “I have yet to see a piece of unambiguously good news for the Democrats in early voting data or any places reporting live turnout on Election Day,” Ruffini wrote.

He urged anyone with encouraging Democratic turnout data to share it, as long as it’s not based on “modeled partisanship.”

I have yet to see a piece of unambiguously good news for the Democrats in early voting data or any places reporting live turnout on Election Day but I don’t want to have blinders on.

Hit me up with Dem good news, but no modeled partisanship.

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 5, 2024

Veteran political commentator Mark Halperin amplified Ruffini’s concerns, dubbing his message “the most important tweet of the day.” While Halperin advised against overreacting, his comment hints at the potential for low turnout among Democratic voters, something Harris’s team has been aggressively working to counter through last-minute outreach and mobilization efforts.

As of now, this is the most important tweet of the day. Don’t go overboard but….. https://t.co/vXCHbzkJlA

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) November 5, 2024

Polls have shown a steady lead for Trump in Florida for the entirety of the race against Harris, but the strength of Democrats down the ballot could help determine which party controls the Senate in 2025. Election forecaster Nate Silver recently gave Republicans a 92% chance of winning Senate control, citing likely victories in West Virginia and Montana as all the GOP needs to pick up 51 seats.

For Trump, a victory in Duval County would underscore the remarkable turnaround in fortunes he has experienced since leaving office. In a mirror image, Arizona’s Maricopa County now appears to be trending red in early returns after voting for Biden in 2020. Exit polls there are showing more than two-thirds of Election Day voters coming out for Trump. As of 11:40 a.m. EST, 23,919 Republicans have cast ballots on Election Day, representing 42.5% of the day’s total vote so far.

In comparison, just 11,324 Democrats have voted in Maricopa County, home to the state’s capital city of Phoenix, a smidge over 20% of all votes cast Tuesday.

The tiny island territory of Guam, long a Democratic bastion at the local level, also appears to be hurtling toward Republican control for the first time in 16 years. Exit polling reported on by the Express Tribune indicates that Guam Republicans are on track to grab the state legislature’s gavel for the first time since 2008, a remarkable turnaround for a caucus that has long been relegated to the sidelines during legislative sessions

For Harris, today’s turnout is pivotal.

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