JUST IN: GOP Now Heavily Favored To Retain House Control

With the wind at their backs and wins for the White House and U.S. Senate in the rearview mirror, Republicans on Wednesday inched closer to the holy grail of Washington politics: a majority in the U.S. House, virtually guaranteeing an unbridled path to governing for the next two years.

The House GOP headed into election day with among the narrowest of majorities in the modern era. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-AL) acknowledged as much, telling Axios his political operation has spent more than a year preparing for Tuesday’s elections. “We’ve been working for a year … preparing this playbook that we’ll talk about all the time for the next Congress,” he said, laying out a “keep your quarterback” message that has become easier after flipping several contested seats. “So if we’re going to … run those plays and execute them with precision, you got to keep the quarterback on the field and keep the same team,” he added.

(FOCUS GROUP: Do You Blame KAMALA or TRUMP for record inflation?)

Two years after Republicans failed to produce the much-hyped “red wave” during the 2022 midterms, it finally came to fruition, washing away Democratic House members in swing districts. Republican Tom Barrett (R-MI) defeated Democrat Curtis Hertel, flipping a suburban seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), the congresswoman who remains locked in limbo against former Rep. Mike Rogers as votes are counted in their Senate race. In Pennsylvania’s 8th district, Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. defeated incumbent Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA), flipping a seat lost to the GOP during the 2018 midterms.

North Carolina’s devastating hurricane proved to be the “October surprise” that may put Republicans in the driver’s seat in 2025. CNN projected Republican House candidates Brad Knott, Tim Moore and Addison McDowell all won their elections, bringing the total of seats flipped by the GOP to four. Democrats managed to flip New York’s 19th and 22nd Districts, defeating Reps. Marc Molinaro and John Mannion (R-NY), the latter earning the vicissitude of most vulnerable Republican this cycle. Other endangered Republicans — including Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) — managed to hang on, expanding the caucus’s narrow majority for now.

To be sure, control of the lower chamber remains too close to call. Republicans have secured 197 of the 218 seats needed for an outright majority while Democrats hold 177. Politico predicts it may be weeks or months until a finally tally comes in, especially given the slower pace of counting in some states like Arizona and California. Other House Republicans fighting for their political futures including Republican Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) while Democratic Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and Matt Cartwright (D-PA) do the same.

Political betting markets give House Republicans better than 93% chances of keeping the majority. Still, Johnson, noting many races remain undecided, reiterated he’s not taking anything for granted. “New York and California were always the road to the majority, and there’s still a giant question mark over California. So I just hope that what I saw there on the ground translates to the ballot,” he told Axios.

(The American Economy Is About To Burst. Prepare Now)