‘Cooked The Books’: Pollster Under Fire For Retiring Right After Wildly Inaccurate Survey

Ann Selzer, the veteran pollster once lauded as a gold standard in public opinion research, announced her retirement on Sunday, but the timing has drawn scrutiny following a controversial final survey.

Selzer’s Iowa Poll, long considered a bellwether for political trends, faced intense backlash after its final pre-election survey projected Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in Iowa—a prediction that proved wildly off when Trump won the state by a staggering 13-point margin.

Just days before the November 5th election, Selzer claimed Kamala Harris was leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. Despite this, the final results showed a different outcome: Trump secured 56% of the vote, earning 927,531 votes and winning 6 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris only received 42.7%. The poll was inaccurate, to say the least.

The survey’s inaccuracy ignited a firestorm, with many accusing Selzer of intentionally skewing the results. Former President Trump took to Truth Social to voice his outrage, labeling the poll “totally fake” and calling for an investigation. “She knew exactly what she was doing,” Trump wrote. “Thank you to the GREAT PEOPLE OF IOWA for giving me such a record-breaking vote, despite possible ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited ‘newspaper’ for which she works.”

Selzer, who had conducted the Iowa Poll under contract with The Des Moines Register since 1997, denied any wrongdoing in a guest column explaining her departure. She framed her decision as part of a long-planned career pivot, asserting that she had informed the newspaper over a year ago of her intention not to renew her contract.

“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist,” Selzer wrote. “I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings. My integrity means a lot to me.” Despite her defense, the poll’s dramatic miss has overshadowed Selzer’s otherwise illustrious career. Over three decades, she built a reputation for accuracy, earning an A+ rating from pollster analyst Nate Silver. Her surveys often defied conventional wisdom.

But this year’s Iowa Poll has prompted questions about whether Selzer’s past success created overconfidence. Critics have been especially vocal on social media, where political commentators accused Selzer of deliberately manipulating data. “She didn’t catch an outlier. She didn’t make an honest mistake. She cooked the books and released a poll that she knew wasn’t just wrong, but dishonest.”

Ann Selzer’s retirement makes one thing totally clear.

She didn’t catch an outlier. She didn’t make an honest mistake.

She cooked the books and released a poll that she knew wasn’t just wrong, but dishonest.

She knew there would be no consequences in retirement.

— Derek. (@SuitablePolitic) November 17, 2024

Selzer addressed the backlash in her column, lamenting that “there are likely no words to dissuade” her detractors. In her retirement op-ed, she highlighted her commitment to “truth and accuracy” and expressed pride in her contributions to public opinion research.

Still, the timing of her retirement announcement, coming just days after the election, has fueled suspicions. While Selzer stated that she plans to continue working with private clients and exploring new ventures, the fallout from her final Iowa Poll could cast a long shadow over her legacy.

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