Historically Anti-Trump GOP Senator Faces Uphill Battle For 2026 Primary Election

Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina known for his vocal criticisms of President-elect Donald Trump, is facing a tough road ahead in his 2026 primary election. A recent poll conducted by Campaign Viability Research reveals Tillis is trailing a yet-to-be-determined opponent, with undecided voters potentially holding the key to his political future.

The poll, conducted between November 13 and 15, surveyed 800 likely voters and shows Tillis garnering only 31% of support. His hypothetical challenger leads the pack with 36.3%, while 32.7% of respondents remain undecided.

BREAKING: North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis may lose his GOP primary in 2026

🔴 Someone else: 36.3%
🟠 Undecided: 32.7%
🟡 Tillis: 31%

Campaign Viability Research (R) | 11/13-15 | N=800LV pic.twitter.com/m8QrMqQmqt

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 25, 2024

Tillis, who was first elected to the Senate in 2014, has frequently positioned himself as a moderate voice within the GOP, often clashing with Trump-aligned factions. He opposed efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results and was one of a handful of Republican senators who publicly supported President Biden’s judicial nominations. These decisions have drawn ire from conservative activists and Trump loyalists, who view Tillis as out of step with the party’s base.

U.S. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina speaking at the 2016 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland.

The senator’s challenges mirror the trend within the GOP, where moderates and Trump critics have faced mounting primary challenges in recent election cycles. Tillis’s predicament is particularly acute, given North Carolina’s status as a battleground state with an energized pro-Trump Republican electorate.

J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, highlighted the precarious position of a Republican senator, stating, “It’s fair to call Tillis the most vulnerable Republican senator up in 2026.”

Analysts believe that Tillis’s path to reelection might have been smoother if Vice President Kamala Harris had won the presidential election against Trump.

Morgan Jackson, a political strategist with ties to Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and the state’s Democratic Governor-elect Josh Stein, commented on the anticipation surrounding Tillis’s prospects under a Trump administration: “Democrats are absolutely getting the popcorn out to watch and see how Thom Tillis fares with a Donald Trump presidency.” Jackson said, “Trump and the Republican base place loyalty above every other characteristic — over experience, over ideas, over right or wrong.”

Jordan Shaw, a longtime advisor to Tillis, spoke to WRAL about Tillis’s commitment to supporting President Trump and the newly formed Senate Republican majority. Shaw stated, “Tillis has already won the two most expensive Senate races in history, despite the left throwing everything they had at him.”

Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, he added, “With the 2026 midterms on the horizon, make no mistake: Senator Tillis will have a historic amount of resources, infrastructure and a record of results to run on. We are already operating toward another successful campaign for North Carolina’s senior Senator.”

In June 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party censured Tillis due to his bipartisan support on issues like gun control and same-sex marriage.

Jessica Taylor, an editor at the Cook Political Report, assessed the reelection prospects of GOP senators, noting that among the 22 Republican incumbents up for reelection in 2026, Tillis is “one of the two most vulnerable.”

For now, Tillis finds himself in a precarious position, facing not just a potential challenger but also the growing discontent of his party’s base.

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