NEW: GOP Midterm Hopes Spike As Redistricting Plans Expand

Republican odds of holding their slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives have surged 16 percent on a popular odds site as yet another Republican-dominated state has signaled that they will seek to redraw congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

According to a report from Punchbowl News, Missouri is considering a push for redistricting, with the outlet noting that the state is “perhaps the easiest” place for the GOP to pick up a seat.

“Republicans in Jefferson City are already discussing a new map that would give them seven of the state’s eight districts — and the White House is on board, according to sources familiar with the process,” the outlet reported. “In 2022, Missouri lawmakers drew a map that elected six Republicans and two Democrats over the vehement objections of some in the GOP.”

If redistricting plans are indeed submitted, the seat currently held by U.S. Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver in the state’s Fifth Congressional District, which encompasses much of the Kansas City area, could be most at risk. The seat is not protected by the Voting Rights Act, meaning that Republicans could do away with it should they submit new maps that break up Kansas City.

The latest report comes as the Texas legislature has just started a 30-day special session that, among other things, will discuss redistricting. Texas Governor Greg Abbott cited “constitutional concerns” brought by the Justice Department for redrawing the maps, which is typically done once every 10 years. The letter claims that four districts in the Houston and Dallas metro areas, key Democratic strongholds, were racially gerrymandered the last time the maps were drawn in 2021.

Under the preliminary plan submitted by Texas Republicans, the GOP could pick up as many as seven seats in the Lonestar State.

Republican-controlled Ohio is also set to redraw maps for its 15 congressional districts ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio’s unusual redistricting laws mandate a redraw ahead of 2026 because the current map passed without bipartisan support.

The current map produces 10 Republican and five Democrat seats, while Republicans previously attempted to redraw more favorable maps in 2022. That effort was nixed by the Republican-controlled Supreme Court, though the GOP has since expanded its hold on the state’s high court, opening the door for a more favorable outcome.

Democrats in blue states have vowed to retaliate, though their avenues for doing so are practically nonexistent. The Democrat-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected a redistricting lawsuit that would have almost certainly benefitted Democrats earlier this year.

While the Badger State is expected to redraw its maps eventually, they will be unable to do so ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has also called on the state to redraw its maps — which are already heavily gerrymandered in favor of Democrats — though this plan appears unlikely due to the state’s “independent” redistricting commission. Similar efforts to redraw maps in favor of Democrats in New York were struck down by the state’s high court last year.