REPORT: GOP Could Gain Over 40 Seats From Redistricting, Census Overhaul

Republicans may be poised for a seismic advantage in the House of Representatives, with strategists now estimating a potential net gain of up to 42 seats, thanks to a three-pronged effort involving redistricting, proposed changes to the U.S. Census, and a major Supreme Court case challenging race-based districting.

Appearing on Steve Bannon’s War Room, GOP strategist Alex DeGrasse laid out the coordinated strategy with striking confidence.

“We zoom out, Steve, we’ve got three things here,” DeGrasse began. “We’ve got obviously the Texas redistricting… we talked about 12 seats, now it’s 13, now they’re talking about 15, 16. You’ve got South Carolina, you’ve got other states looking at things.”

DeGrasse noted that Texas alone could yield as many as five new seats through mid-decade redistricting, with other GOP-led states like Missouri, Ohio, and Florida exploring similar maneuvers.

The second major push involves census reform—an initiative backed by President Trump to exclude illegal immigrants from the count, which would dramatically reshape how congressional seats are apportioned.

“Obviously, the census and not including illegal immigrants, which again, something the War Room and you have been talking about since the start of the show… would be [to] systematically change modern American politics,” DeGrasse added.

WATCH:

ALEX DEGRASSE: Redistricting, census reform, and SCOTUS rulings are colliding.

All three hit the Dems where it hurts most: map control.

42 seats are on the line. This is the fight of the decade.@Degrasse81 pic.twitter.com/ggG9K473VH

— Bannon’s WarRoom (@Bannons_WarRoom) August 7, 2025

While the Constitution currently mandates counting the “whole number of persons,” Trump’s allies argue that excluding non-citizens would produce a “highly accurate” count that better reflects the U.S. electorate. Critics say such a change would face steep legal hurdles, requiring Congressional action and certain constitutional amendments.

The third and perhaps most consequential piece of the puzzle is currently before the Supreme Court.

DeGrasse explained. “And if that happens, you’ve got these three vectors… back of the envelope math this morning when I woke up with a smile was Democrats could lose 42 seats.”

The two cases before the high court—Louisiana v. Callais and Alexander v. South Carolina NAACP—could radically reshape how district lines are drawn. If the justices rule that racially gerrymandered districts violate the Constitution, dozens of Democrat-friendly seats that depend on racial composition could be dismantled.

Redistricting laws across the South—and in states with long histories of Voting Rights Act enforcement—could face major rollbacks.

Taken together, the implications are historic. While some analysts have been skeptical of the exact “42-seat” figure, the GOP’s aggressive posture suggests a multi-cycle game plan is underway, targeting every legal, procedural, and demographic lever.

Democrats, for their part, are scrambling to respond. States like California, New York, and Illinois are exploring potential countermeasures, though independent redistricting commissions in several blue states limit their flexibility.

Meanwhile, the redistricting battles in Texas have already escalated to national headlines. The state, encouraged by Trump himself, is preparing to redraw maps in 2026—potentially seizing five or more new seats just before the midterms. Similar maneuvers in other red states could increase that total, possibly approaching the 42-seat mark DeGrasse referenced.

Census reform may be more speculative in the short term, but the legal conversation is shifting fast. If courts or Congress allow for a reapportioned count excluding non-citizens, blue states with large illegal immigrant populations could lose seats, while GOP-heavy states gain them.

As for the courts, rulings in the coming months could either halt or greenlight the dismantling of race-based districts—potentially reshaping the House for a generation.

If the GOP’s strategy succeeds across all three fronts—redistricting, census reform, and legal precedent—Democrats could find themselves in a historically deep minority, just as the 2026 midterms approach.