MAGA Congresswoman Tightens Race For Governor In Deep-Blue State

A hypothetical matchup for governor of New York is tightening, according to results showing a MAGA congresswoman coming closer to striking distance against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

If the election were held today, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) would finish 14 points behind Hochul. However, the contest is 15 months away, and the gap represents the smallest since news first emerged that Stefanik was considering a bid for the state’s corner office.

The Siena College poll also asked about Lee Zeldin, President Trump’s energy secretary, who ran for governor of New York in 2021. He trails Hochul by 11 points, the smallest margin of any Republican candidate on record.

Interestingly, Zeldin trailed Hochul by 11 points during the final week of their face-off. Hochul went on to win by just 7 points.

“Stefanik can highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45-31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Siena polling spokesperson Steven Greenberg said.

The poll comes as Stefanik appears to be coalescing New York’s GOP around her bid after Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) announced his decision to stay out of the 2026 contest and seek reelection.

Other bright spots for Stefanik in the poll show she leads Hochul 35% to 32% among independent voters. She also leads Hochul 41% to 39% among critical suburban voters in Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam counties.

Zeldin held similar leads in both categories prior to losing to Hochul, the NY Post reported.

A fifth of voters polled said they are not familiar with either Hochul or Stefanik, a promising sign for the MAGA congresswoman.

“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters — either positively or negatively. While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik,” Greenberg said.

Hochul is doing herself no favors. Her handling of the state’s surge of migrants has left her underwater with most voters: 44% view the Democratic incumbent unfavorably, while 42% hold a favorable opinion of her.

Hochul has had an upside-down approval rating for nine of the past 10 Siena polls.

Asked about the state’s direction, 41% of poll respondents said New York is on the “right track” compared to 45% who believe it is on the “wrong track.”

Stefanik was nominated by President Trump to serve as U.N. ambassador but withdrew her nomination after U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) urged her to remain in office and help keep the GOP’s narrow majority intact.

Although the margin is still tight, Stefanik is expected to be afforded the ability to leave her suburban seat in search of Ablany’s corner office. It appears certain she would receive President Trump’s blessing in the Republican primary.