NEW: Dems’ Top Senate Recruit On Track To Lose Key Race

A rare pickup opportunity for U.S. Senate Democrats is now imperiled amid new polling showing the party’s top recruit faces headwinds against a popular Republican incumbent.

Former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK), one of the few moderate Democrats in the U.S. House in recent years, is being courted heavily by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to expand next year’s map and challenge U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), the state’s junior senator who has served since 2015.

Peltola, who represented Alaska’s at-large congressional seat but lost in last year’s elections, is just one of two Democrats to win statewide office in the state this century.

The odds of winning higher office are slim, however. A new memo by Alaska Survey Research portrays the would-be race as an uphill one for Peltola, who would start 5 points behind.

If the election were held today, Sullivan would lead Peltola 47%-42%, with 11% undecided. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who is not up for reelection until 2028, faces a dismal 33% approval rating compared to 60% of Alaskans who disapprove of the senior Republican.

The survey of 2,053 voters was in the field from July 29 to Aug. 1, about a month after Murkowski voted with most Republicans to pass President Donald Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. Trump is viewed favorably by 44.3% of Alaskans compared to 51.6% who disapprove of his job performance.

Recapturing a Senate majority is still coveted by Schumer, who must convince party donors that the upper chamber is not a lost cause in 2026. Democrats are facing headwinds from a map that heavily favors Republicans and puts key incumbents like Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) on defense.

Schumer has managed to recruit Sherrod Brown, the former Ohio senator, to run against Republican Sen. John Husted (R-OH) next year; however, Brown starts the race 6 points down, a poll last week showed.

Instead, Democrats’ best chance of a pickup has emerged in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper has jumped into the race after Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced his retirement. He will compete against Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, after Lara Trump declined to run.

An outside group aligned with Schumer spent $600,000 earlier this year to bash Sullivan for his support of the Big, Beautiful Bill, which is viewed negatively by a majority of Alaskans.

Peltola was a beneficiary of Alaska’s unique ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to cast their ballots for multiple candidates. If a voter’s first choice does not emerge in the top two vote-getters, their vote is awarded to the next candidate who manages to advance out of the primary. She received 40% of the vote in 2024 while two GOP rivals split the remaining 60%, Axios reported.