‘RINO’ Senator’s Primary Election Prospects Take Major Hit

U.S. Senate Republicans, already in cruise control for 2026, may keep a seat while losing an incumbent in the process, if polling holds showing his conservative primary challenger keeping a sizable lead.

Members of the MAGA faithful are at odds with Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), a top ally to former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) who has drawn a primary challenge from the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton. Cornyn, who started the year off running to replace McConnell as Senate leader, now finds himself under fire as he seeks to keep a seat he’s held for more than two decades.

An ebullition of animosity toward establishment Republicans has crystalized in the Cornyn-Paxton showdown, which shows the senator trailing his rival 37% to 42% in a new poll of 515 likely Republican voters. Echelon Insights reported that 21% of likely primary voters remain undecided in the contest.

President Donald Trump, who has gone underwater even in deep red states since riding high in polls at the start of the year, maintains a sterling 88% approval rating among poll respondents, underscoring how conservative Texas’ Republican base has become during his second term. Cornyn now finds himself out of step after winning his 2020 primary with 76% of the vote.

Unlike Cornyn’s last challengers, Paxton has won statewide office three times and is without a doubt the most formidable Republican opponent to challenge him in decades.

The results build on a January survey showing Cornyn trailing a generic GOP opponent by 4%, a sign of how embattled his brand has become since breaking with Trump on several key issues.

The president has not endorsed in the race but said on Monday that he plans to stay out of the fray for now.

“Well, I’ll make up my mind,” said Trump, ABC News reported. “I like them both. The worst situation I have is when I have two people that I get along with, well, I hate it, and they all want the endorsement … I’d rather not comment on it right now. I like both guys. They’re both friends of mine and they’re both good and very different.”

Paxton’s lead climbed as high as 9 points in May, when Cornyn said that he feared losing the seat to a Democrat if the conservative attorney general wins their party’s primary.

“The last thing we need to do is provide an opportunity for Democrats to get a beachhead in Texas,” said Cornyn. “Which, depending on how the primary turns out, could happen. That would be the end of Texas being red.”