GOP Faces Uphill Battle In Closely-Watched Gubernatorial Race, Poll Finds

Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey, has his work cut out for him as the closely-watched race enters its final stretch, according to a new poll from Quantus Insights.

With a little under two months to go until Election Day, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) leads her Republican opponent by 49 percent to 39 percent with leaners included. An additional 12 percent of respondents, with leaners, indicated that they remain undecided or will be voting for another candidate, Quantus Insights found.

The 10-point margin in favor of Sherrill remained without leaners, though the undecided share of the electorate surged to 16 percent. Independents were just about evenly split, with 39 percent of respondents backing Sherrill and 38 percent for Ciattarelli.

The top line indicates that Ciattarelli is facing an uphill battle, which is not all that unexpected given New Jersey’s longtime blue lean and Democrat edge in voter registration. Republicans have been bullish about their prospects in the Garden State, however, as Ciattarelli massively outperformed polling expectations against incumbent Governor Phil Murphy in 2021.

Republicans have also been the beneficiaries of positive voter registration trends over the past 18 months, though Democrats still maintain a sizable lead in voter registration.

Jack Ciattarelli, Republican nominee for Governor, speaks to the press following the second gubernatorial debate at Rowan University on December 15, 2021

When breaking down the results further, the two candidates face a massive gender divide, with women backing Sherrill by a +20 margin and Ciattarelli holding a slight lead among male voters. Gender divides have become a near constant feature of polling for nearly all races in recent years.

In one particularly troubling nugget for Ciattarelli, the Democrat candidate is dominating among Hispanic voters, Quantus found. Among the key demographic — which has been rapidly shifting to the right in recent years — Sherrill holds a 26-point leads. The Democrat also holds a massive, 40-point lead among black voters, while Ciattarelli leads among white respondents by two percentage points.

The regional divide was also noticeable in the latest Quantus survey. Cherrill is dominating in North Jersey, which encompasses a number of New York suburbs, by a 23-point margin. In South Jersey, closer to Philadelphia, Ciattarelli leads by three points. Sherrill also enjoyed a seven-point lead in central New Jersey.

“For a Republican trying to win statewide in New Jersey — a state that hasn’t elected a GOP governor since Chris Christie in 2013 — that margin is no small obstacle,” Quantus Insights founder Jason Corley wrote in the poll’s summary. “It’s a wall of demographics, geography, and institutional allegiance that the Republican must crack, or he loses. Period.”

Ciattarelli is running as the Republican nominee for governor for the second straight general election. In his last time out, the Republican candidate nearly pulled off a massive upset against incumbent governor Phil Murphy, a race in which his campaign over-performed expectations north of 10 percentage points, according to a number of major pollsters.