JUST IN: Shock Poll Shows Tie In Blue State Gubernatorial Race

The race for New Jersey’s next governor is pitting a pro-Trump Republican businessman against a sitting Democratic congressman. After years of blue dominance, Garden State voters may finally be fed up with the status quo, according to a new poll.

For Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former member of the state assembly, the third time may be the charm as it goes for gubernatorial bids. He ran in 2017 and 2021, and in the latter came about 3 points shy of toppling incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy.

To now see him in a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) is no surprise to political observers who have watched New Jersey drift steadily to the right since the pandemic. President Donald Trump, who lost the state by double-digit margins in 2016 and 2020, came within 6 points of defeating Kamala Harris last year.

In that backdrop, a new survey shows Ciattarelli and Sherrill tied at 43% support apiece, with 14% unsure or supporting someone else. The poll by Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill has been a shot in the arm for Ciattarelli, who has already benefited from modest spending by the Republican Governors Association.

An adept advertising campaign by the Republican has helped: Last month, he released a series of ads showing Sherrill struggling to list her legislative priorities despite being well into her third term in Congress.

President Trump celebrated the survey results in a social media post on Thursday.

“Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey,” President Trump remarked on Truth Social.

“Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor.”

To be sure, Ciattarelli needs to replicate similar results to close the average polling lead of 6.6 points still held by Sherrill, according to RealClearPolitics. But by comparison, Gov. Murphy held a 7.8-point average lead when Ciattarelli nearly toppled him four years ago, the NY Post notes.

The aggregate ultimately underestimated Ciattarelli’s strength by about five points, underscoring how conservatives may conceal their support for the Republican when responding to pollsters.

In addition to running with Trump’s endorsement, Ciattarelli has also drawn support from unlikely corners that have historically backed Democrats running for New Jersey’s corner office.

Garfield Mayor Everett E. Garnto, Jr., a Democrat, changed his party registration last month and signed on with the campaign of Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Four years ago, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy narrowly carried Garfield, 51% to 49%; last year, however, the city’s 32,000 voters delivered a 9-point margin of victory to President Donald Trump, a sign of how its working-class base has abandoned the Democratic Party in droves.