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NEW: Red County Turnout Surges In Crucial State

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1 month ago

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Election Day in New Jersey has taken an unexpected turn as voter turnout in several key red counties surges past expectations, signaling potential trouble for Democrats in what has long been considered a solidly blue state.

As of early afternoon, turnout data shows that Republican-heavy counties like Monmouth, Ocean, and Hunterdon are outpacing blue strongholds such as Union and Essex. While overall turnout across the state is nearing 2021 levels, the partisan enthusiasm appears to be lopsided.

According to election analyst Michael Pruser, Union County had reported nearly 97% of its 2021 total turnout by midday, a strong showing but one that Democrats had hoped would translate into a larger advantage. His breakdown showed 29,876 Democrats, 13,383 Republicans, and 14,609 independents casting ballots by early afternoon.

However, Republican momentum appears strongest in Monmouth County. Analyst Eric Daugherty reported that Monmouth’s election day turnout is “redder than 2024 right now” — a major signal in a race where margins could tighten late into the night. Daugherty shared updated numbers showing Republicans at 43,065 votes, Democrats at 29,620, and Others at 29,361, putting the county at R+13.2, up two full points from the 2024 presidential election.

While blue counties are matching their prior turnout rates, they are not exceeding them. That small difference could be decisive.

The state’s gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is one of the most closely watched contests in the nation. Sherrill, a sitting congresswoman and former Navy pilot, is running to replace term-limited Governor Phil Murphy. Ciattarelli, who nearly defeated Murphy in 2021, is back for another run—this time in a political climate far more favorable to Republicans under President Donald Trump’s second term.

Polls heading into Election Day showed Sherrill leading narrowly by 3 to 6 points, but tightening margins and strong GOP turnout have given Republicans reason to believe the race could go down to the wire. Economic concerns remain at the forefront of voter sentiment. Many residents cite rising costs, property taxes, and energy bills as their top issues. Ciattarelli has focused his campaign on cutting taxes and reining in spending, while Sherrill has emphasized infrastructure and education investments.

All 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly are also on the ballot, adding to the stakes. Republicans are aiming to break the Democrats’ legislative majority, which would mark a major political shift in the Garden State. While the day has not been without challenges — including bomb threats that temporarily shut down several polling sites across seven counties — officials confirmed that the threats were not credible and voting resumed quickly.

With polls open until 8 p.m., the final hours will determine whether the red wave seen in key counties translates into an upset victory or simply a moral boost heading into 2026. Either way, today’s results will serve as a bellwether for how much ground Republicans have gained in the Northeast — and whether Democrats can still rely on New Jersey as a dependable blue firewall.

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