New Poll: Trump-Endorsed Candidate Dominates Gubernatorial Primary Field

A brand-new survey of Florida Republican voters shows Congressman Byron Donalds (R-FL) holding a commanding lead in the race for governor — a surge driven largely by President Donald Trump’s high-profile endorsement and a fractured field of low-visibility challengers.

The poll, conducted November 11–13 by Victory Insights, surveyed 600 likely GOP primary voters and was not commissioned by any campaign or committee. According to the findings, Donalds currently sits at 45% support, towering over every other potential candidate.

His closest competitors — Paul Renner, Jay Collins, and James Fishback — each failed to break even 3%. Nearly half of respondents remain undecided, but even that uncertainty doesn’t appear to threaten Donalds’ early dominance.

It marks a dramatic strengthening of his position since January, when Donalds also led the pack but faced a broader group of recognizable names like Jeanette Nuñez, Wilton Simpson, and Francis Suarez. With those figures now largely out of the picture, Donalds has widened his margin and solidified himself as the overwhelming frontrunner.

Much of that momentum can be attributed to the support of President Trump, who made his stance unmistakably clear back in February. On Truth Social, Trump wrote: “Byron Donalds would be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida and, should he decide to run, will have my Complete and Total Endorsement… RUN, BYRON, RUN.” Days later, Donalds formally entered the race — doing so with Trump’s full backing already secured.

The endorsement reshaped the playing field instantly. The poll shows Donalds dominating every faction of the Republican coalition, but he performs strongest among the largest bloc: self-identified Trump-MAGA Republicans, who make up 43% of the Florida GOP electorate. A stunning 56% of them say they are already backing Donalds. Another 20% identify as Constitutional Conservatives, while Traditional Republicans and Moderates together account for just over one-third of voters.

Even with his commanding lead, some analysts have speculated that a competing endorsement from Governor Ron DeSantis could complicate the race. But the poll suggests that scenario may be overstated. When voters were asked who they would prefer if Trump and DeSantis endorsed different candidates, 31% said they would side with Trump, while 28% would follow DeSantis. The largest share — 41% — remains undecided. Importantly, Donalds currently leads among all three groups.

Still, the idea of a DeSantis-backed challenger appears more theoretical than real. The governor’s own political calculus has shifted since his failed 2024 presidential run, which strained his relationship with Trump and ended unsuccessfully. Many Florida Republicans doubt DeSantis would risk another public break — especially against a candidate as strong as Donalds. Renner has already been passed over once by DeSantis, Collins sits at 1% support, and Fishback remains largely confined to online political circles.

Voter familiarity underscores the uphill climb for the rest of the field. Donalds is known by a majority of the electorate, while the other candidates are known by less than a quarter. His 44% positive name ID is five times higher than any opponent’s. His average rating — 4.11 out of 5 among those who know him — drastically outpaces Renner, Collins, and Fishback, all of whom score below 3.0.

Even Trump and DeSantis, both nearly universally known and highly popular, do not overshadow Donalds’ performance within this particular race. Notably, Donalds even scores higher than Trump with Moderate Republicans — a rarity in GOP polling.

Unless something unexpected reshapes the landscape, Byron Donalds appears to have a clear, unobstructed path toward the Governor’s Mansion — powered by Trump’s endorsement, strong favorability, and a primary field struggling to gain any meaningful traction.