Politics
NEW: Shock Poll Finds GOP With Sizable Lead On Generic Midterm Ballot
A surprising poll from Napolitan News Service poll, conducted online by Scott Rasmussen with fieldwork by RMG Research, Inc. found Republicans leading on the generic midterm congressional ballot by four percentage points.
The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters from December 1-4, 2025, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Its primary focus was on the 2026 generic congressional ballot, asking respondents”If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican from your district or the Democrat from your district?” respondents were asked.
Additional questions explored voter enthusiasm levels, policy preferences, and demographic factors influencing turnout, though full crosstabs are restricted and not publicly detailed.
Among registered voters, 45 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41 percent expressed support the Democrat, giving Republicans a 4-point lead. When including leaners (independents who lean toward one party), the margin held steady at 48 percent for Republicans and 44 percent for Democrats.
This represents a slight widening from September 2025’s 46-45 percent lead (with leaners), continuing a trend where Republicans have led the generic ballot in most months of 2025, except for Democratic advantages in April and May, and a tie in August at 47 percent each.
While the Napolitan News survey provided a positive result for Republicans on the generic ballot, Democrats edged out Republican respondents in terms of voter enthusiasm by a two-point margin (50-48 percent).
Among voters preferring Trump-like policies, 43 percent report being Very Enthusiastic, compared to just 22 percent for those favoring traditional Republican policies, suggesting potential motivational divides within the GOP base. Overall, enthusiasm levels varied significantly by demographics and habits, highlighting risks for lower-turnout groups.
Seniors aged 65 and older showed the highest enthusiasm at 57 percent stating they are “Very Enthusiastic,” far outpacing younger age brackets. Just 27 percent of those aged 18-34 and 35-44 expressed the same level of enthusiasm.
Additionally, 64 percent of “Very Enthusiastic” voters indicated that they discuss politics every day or almost daily, underscoring the role of engagement in driving voter participation. No further breakdowns by gender, region, race, or education were publicly released in the topline.
2026 Generic congressional ballot
🔴 Republicans: 48% (+4)
🔵 Democrats: 44%Napolitan News/RMG poll | 12/1-12/4 pic.twitter.com/94HlaNib6E
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) December 6, 2025
While the generic congressional ballot survey provided a Republican advantage, it remains an outlier on the RealClearPolitics polling average. The average currently sits at D+4.9, with the most recent survey in the average, conducted by Quantus Insights, found Democrats ahead by four points.
