Red Wave Brewing On Voter Rolls In Once-Blue Battleground

Democrats are watching their voter-registration edge erode in several states, but nowhere is the shift more striking than in North Carolina, where a decades-long Democratic advantage is on the brink of disappearing.

A decade ago, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in North Carolina by nearly 750,000 registered voters. Today, that margin has shrunk to just over 1,000, according to the latest figures from the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

“Voters across North Carolina are rejecting the Democrats’ failed agenda and choosing Republican leadership,” Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., said. “This shift didn’t happen overnight, it’s the result of years of good common sense Republican governance and our focus on offering serious solutions on the issues that matter to the people.”

The narrowing gap reflects a broader national trend. A New York Times analysis earlier this year found that between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost roughly 2.1 million registered voters across 30 states that track registration data, while Republicans gained about 2.4 million. The net result was a Democratic deficit of roughly 4.5 million voters over four years.

In North Carolina, the Democratic registration advantage held relatively steady between 2005 and 2015 at around 670,000. That began to change in 2015, when the gap started closing rapidly.

By 2020, Democrats led Republicans by fewer than 380,000 registered voters. As of the most recent update, that advantage has dwindled to just 1,216 voters.

“The reality is that bad Democrat policies coming out of Washington are driving voters away from the party here at home,” said Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman and North Carolina GOP Senate candidate.

“Insane policies supported by Roy Cooper and pushed by DC Democrats like Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris are completely out of step with North Carolinians,” he said. “Democrats couldn’t win Senate races here even when they had a cash advantage and a huge voter-registration edge. Now they’ve lost that registration advantage too, and voters are making it clear they’re done with failed Democrat leadership.”

Democrats pushed back, arguing the numbers tell a more complicated story. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee noted that Republicans’ overall share of registered voters has declined, while unaffiliated registrations have surged, a trend affecting both parties. Even so, Democrats have seen a sharper drop in raw registration numbers over the past decade.

“Despite their repeated attempts at gerrymandering the state to subvert the will of the voters, Republicans have not managed to increase their share of registered voters in nearly four decades,” said Madison Andrus, the DCCC’s regional spokesperson for North Carolina.

“Now, with this latest scheme top of mind, voters across the state are souring on Republicans’ failing agenda that has led to higher grocery prices, more expensive health care, and greater difficulty making ends meet,” Andrus added. “Republicans have abandoned North Carolina’s working families and people are taking notice.”

Republicans, however, say the trajectory is unmistakable.

According to Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters, North Carolina “is undergoing a historic shift,” and Democrats’ longtime advantage has “crumbled.”

“Voters rejected Kamala Harris last year, and they’re continuing that trend as they turn away from the failed policies of Roy Cooper and Josh Stein,” Gruters said.

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