Jasmine Crockett’s Senate Hopes Crash And Burn As Party Ditches Her For Well-Spoken Democrat

Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico has opened up a clear lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Lone Star State’s Democratic Senate primary, according to new polling released Thursday.

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows Talarico ahead by nine points among likely Democratic primary voters, 47 percent to Crockett’s 38 percent. Another 15 percent remain undecided.

The two Democrats are vying for the chance to take on Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is facing turbulence of his own from the right in the GOP primary.

Talarico, who has raised more than $13 million since launching his campaign in September, drew strong support from Hispanic and white voters, winning just under six in 10 from each group. Crockett dominated among Black Democratic primary voters, capturing 80 percent, the poll found.

Men favored Talarico by a wide 22-point margin, while women split evenly between the two candidates, Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.

A former middle school teacher, Talarico’s profile surged last year after he joined other Texas Democrats in fleeing the state to block a Republican-backed redistricting plan.

Crockett, a well-known but polarizing figure within Democratic circles, scrambled the race with a late entry in December. Her decision pushed former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), the party’s 2024 Senate nominee, to abandon a 2026 Senate bid and instead run for a House seat, setting up a head-to-head primary fight.

Austin, Texas United States – July 25th, 2025 – Jasmine Crockett Speaks at Powered by the People Democratic Political Rally

On the Republican side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow one-point edge over Cornyn, leading 27 percent to 26 percent among likely GOP primary voters. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) sits at 16 percent, while 29 percent are undecided.

“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May,” Kimball noted.

In hypothetical general election matchups, Paxton tied both Talarico and Crockett at 46 percent.

Cornyn performed better, topping Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent and beating Crockett 48 percent to 43 percent.

Democrats remain optimistic about cutting into Republican dominance in a state that President Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Still, the Cook Political Report rates the Senate contest as likely Republican, just shy of a solid GOP rating.

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey was conducted Jan. 10–12 among 1,165 Texas voters. Among the 413 likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of error was 4.8 percentage points. For the 550 likely Republican primary voters, the margin of error was 4.1 percentage points.

Download the FREE Trending Politics App to get the latest news FIRST >>