Trump Effect: US Murder Rate Drops To Lowest Level In 126 Years

Murders plunged 21% last year across 35 major U.S. cities, the largest single-year drop ever recorded and a decline that likely puts the national murder rate at its lowest point since 1900, according to data reviewed by Axios.

The collapse in violent crime marks a sharp reversal from the COVID-era surge and comes as President Donald Trump presses an aggressive law-and-order agenda focused on border enforcement, federal intervention and backing police.

Figures compiled by the Council on Criminal Justice show 11 of 13 major crime categories fell in 2025 compared with 2024. Nine offenses dropped by double digits. Aggravated assaults declined 9%, while gun assaults and robberies fell 22% and 23%, respectively. Drug crimes were the only category to rise, increasing 7%.

Trump has argued that tougher enforcement, deportations of criminal illegal aliens and a no-tolerance posture toward violent offenders are driving the turnaround. His administration has deployed National Guard troops to cities plagued by unrest and tied immigration enforcement directly to public safety.

“Whether it be deporting criminal illegal aliens, supporting law enforcement officers, or finally being tough on criminals, the Trump Administration has employed a whole-of-government approach to drive down crime and make communities safer,” a White House spokesperson told Axios.

While some critics argue crime had already begun falling before Trump returned to office, the scale and speed of the decline have strengthened the administration’s claim that tougher policies matter.

Axios just reported the lowest murder rate since 1900, down 20% from 2024, and somehow forgot to mention President Trump or the historic results of this FBI.

Nearly 200% more arrests. Violent gangs crushed. Fugitives hunted down.

Media gymnastics can’t hide the reality that… pic.twitter.com/48s9JPtXcw

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) January 22, 2026

Council on Criminal Justice President and CEO Adam Gelb cautioned that multiple factors are likely at play.

“It’s extremely difficult to disentangle and pinpoint what’s actually driving the drop,” Gelb said, pointing to shifts in policing, criminal justice policy, technology and broader economic conditions.

Of the 35 cities reporting homicide data, 31 recorded declines. Murders dropped 41% in Denver and fell 40% in both Washington, D.C., and Omaha, Nebraska. Little Rock, Arkansas, was the lone standout, posting a 16% increase.

The report did not include Jackson, Mississippi, or Birmingham, Alabama, which ranked among the nation’s highest murder rates per capita in 2024, according to FBI data.

Once finalized federal numbers are released later this year, analysts expect the national murder rate to land near 4.0 per 100,000 people — a level not seen in more than a century and a milestone the Trump administration is already claiming as proof that hardline crime policies work.

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