NEW: Support For GOP Surges Eight Points Over One Month In Generic Ballot Poll

Voters are giving President Donald Trump a modest boost on the economy — and Republicans a messaging edge heading into the midterms.

The latest Harvard CAPS / Harris poll shows the GOP has surged 8 points on the generic congressional ballot since January, pulling even at 50-50 after trailing at the start of the year. Among likely voters, Republicans now hold a 4-point edge.

That momentum comes as the February survey found 52% of voters say the economy is better today than it was under President Joe Biden, up 5 points from January. A narrow majority, 51%, now describe the U.S. economy as strong, a 2-point bump from last month and an 8-point jump since November.

More than a third of voters, 36%, say their personal finances are improving, up 4 points since November. The gains are especially pronounced among Republicans, men, likely midterm voters, those ages 25 to 44 and urban voters.

Still, 52% say the economy is shrinking, and 62% believe inflation remains above 3%.

“The Americans are single-mindedly focused on the economy, and this poll shows there is room for people to change their opinion as we’re seeing some improvement in the long-term trend,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “The administration has to keep working on explaining its economic policy to change the minds of voters ahead of the midterms.”

Trump’s overall approval rating sits at 46%, with his strongest marks on fighting crime in America’s cities at 51%, immigration at 48%, and returning America to its values at 48%.

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On trade, voters are siding with the Supreme Court. Sixty-five percent agree with the justices’ decision limiting executive power to impose tariffs in non-emergencies.

The poll also shows broad support for election integrity measures. Eighty-five percent say only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote, and 71% back the SAVE AMERICA Act.

On ideology, Americans are overwhelmingly pro-capitalism. Seventy-six percent say they support free enterprise over socialist policies, with strong consensus in favor of private homeownership, property rights and privately run grocery stores.

Trump’s policy agenda continues to draw majority support across several fronts. Eighty percent support lowering prescription drug prices. Seventy-five percent back deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. Seventy-one percent favor eliminating fraud in government spending, and 69% support capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year.

Inflation and immigration remain voters’ top concerns, with health care ticking up this month.

On foreign policy, 59% now support the arrest of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and U.S. intervention in Venezuela, a 5-point increase. Sixty-two percent say the Trump administration should push Venezuela toward democracy.

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Nearly half of voters, 47%, say they watched the State of the Union. Among those who tuned in, 60% had a favorable view. All 11 new policies Trump announced received majority support, including a ban on stock trading by members of Congress at 72%, federal retirement accounts for workers without plans at 70%, a ban on Wall Street firms buying single-family homes at 69% and a most-favored-nation drug pricing deal at 68%.

Fifty-two percent say it was appropriate for some Democrats to boycott the address, but 57% say booing and jeering during the speech was inappropriate.

About one-third, 33%, watched the Democratic rebuttal from Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger. Of those who watched at least part of it, 61% had a favorable opinion.

The midterm picture remains tight. Voters are split 50-50 on which party they would back if congressional elections were held today. But after exposure to party messaging, 51% say they are more likely to vote Republican. Among likely voters, the GOP holds a 4-point edge.

Republican arguments centered on curbing spending, securing the border and reducing crime resonated most, with more than two in five voters saying those messages make them more likely to support the party. Democratic attacks focused on stopping Trump and his tariffs were seen as believable by 61% of voters but yielded only a modest net shift toward Democrats.

The Republican Party’s approval rating now stands at 48%, up 4 points since January, compared with 45% for Democrats. Congressional approval remains low at 34%.

With the midterms looming, the numbers suggest voters are watching their wallets first — and adjusting their politics accordingly.

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