Top-Rated Pollster Shows Contenders Deadlocked In High-Profile GOP Primary

The race to become South Carolina’s next governor is wide open, with Republican voters still shopping around for a clear favorite.

A new Quantus Insights survey of 806 likely GOP primary voters conducted March 10–11 shows a crowded field and a massive bloc of undecided voters as the 2026 contest begins to take shape.

Roughly 39% of Republicans say they still haven’t decided who they would back if the primary were held today, underscoring just how early the race remains.

Among voters who have picked a candidate, Rep. Nancy Mace holds a narrow edge at 19%. Attorney General Alan Wilson is right behind her at 18%. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette sits at 13%, followed by Rep. Ralph Norman at 9%. State Sen. Josh Kimbrell registers at 2%.

Once voters who lean toward a candidate are included, the top of the field tightens even further.

Mace and Wilson are effectively tied at the top, each drawing about 22% of the combined firm and leaning vote. Evette lands at 16%, Norman at 11%, and Kimbrell at 3%.

Even after accounting for those leaners, about one-quarter of Republican voters still remain undecided.

The numbers suggest the GOP primary is far from settled and not yet a two-candidate showdown. Instead, it’s a contest still searching for a clear frontrunner.

The latest snapshot also reflects a shift from Quantus Insights’ earlier survey conducted Oct. 1–3, 2025.

Mace has improved her standing since the fall poll, climbing from third place to essentially tied for the lead. Evette, meanwhile, has slipped from support in the low 20s down into the mid-teens.

Wilson’s position has been the steadiest. His share of support has remained roughly unchanged across both surveys.

South Carolina AG Alan Wilson with Donald Trump and his wife, Jennifer

But the most striking change is the swelling number of undecided voters.

Since October, the share of Republicans still weighing their options has grown. The trend suggests many voters are holding off on committing as the field takes shape and the campaign begins to ramp up.

While candidate support remains unsettled, Republican voters are far more unified about what issues matter most.

Economic concerns dominate the early electorate. About 31% say the economy, inflation, and the cost of living are the top issues facing the state.

Election integrity and voting laws come in next at roughly 23%.

Taxes and government spending follow at 13%, while border security and immigration register at 11%.

The priorities reflect a familiar order in Republican primaries. Voters are focused first on economic stability, followed by concerns about election systems and government spending.

Candidates who can credibly address rising costs and household economic pressures may have the best opportunity to win over the large bloc of undecided voters.

The survey also offers an early look at who is shaping the GOP primary electorate.

The likely voter pool skews older, with more than half of respondents aged 65 or older. That aligns with the turnout patterns that traditionally dominate South Carolina Republican primaries.

Support for the candidates varies somewhat across different groups, but no one has yet built a dominant coalition.

Mace performs somewhat better among men and suburban voters. Wilson shows stronger support among voters with higher education levels and in certain congressional districts.

WASHINGTON, DC – February 29, 2024: U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) leaves the Capitol

Evette’s backing appears somewhat stronger in rural parts of the state, while Norman’s support is more regionally concentrated.

For now, none of those patterns is decisive.

The defining feature of the race is its unsettled state at this juncture.

A large share of Republican voters still hasn’t committed to any candidate. The leading contenders are packed tightly together in the polls. And the issues driving the electorate, especially the economy, leave room for multiple candidates to compete for the same voters.

South Carolina primaries have a reputation for breaking decisively once campaigns fully get underway.

But this early look suggests the 2026 governor’s race could take time to shake out.

For now, the field is fluid, the electorate is still weighing its options, and the fight for the GOP nomination is only just beginning.

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