GOP Senator Falls To Third Place In Primary Race: Poll

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is facing mounting trouble in his 2026 reelection bid, with new polling showing the Republican incumbent badly trailing both of his top potential challengers in an increasingly volatile primary race.

A new memo from BDPC Campaign Strategies found that Rep. Julia Letlow leads the field with 29 percent support among likely primary voters, while Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming sits in second at 23.5 percent. Cassidy trails in third with just 19.7 percent, while 26.8 percent of voters remain undecided.

The results suggest no candidate has locked up the race as of mid-March, but Cassidy’s standing appears to be deteriorating after briefly surging earlier this year.

According to the memo, Letlow rebounded sharply after slipping to 21.3 percent in February, climbing back to 29 percent and matching her January performance. Fleming, meanwhile, has steadily gained ground over the past two months, rising from 14.3 percent in January to 23.5 percent in March.

Cassidy’s trajectory moved in the opposite direction. After peaking at 27.5 percent in February, the incumbent dropped nearly eight points and now sits at his lowest level of the tracking period.

The polling becomes even more troubling for Cassidy in potential runoff matchups.

In a head-to-head contest against Letlow, the congresswoman crushes Cassidy 50.2 percent to 24.2 percent. Fleming also posts a commanding advantage over the senator, leading Cassidy 48.7 percent to 26.3 percent.

A hypothetical showdown between Letlow and Fleming is effectively tied, with Letlow narrowly edging Fleming 34.3 percent to 33.2 percent.

Regionally, Cassidy performs best in the New Orleans area, where he earns 26.4 percent support, but struggles badly in the Alexandria-Shreveport-Monroe region, where he draws only 11.8 percent.

That part of the state appears to be fertile ground for both challengers. Letlow dominates the region with 37.3 percent support, while Fleming posts 29 percent there and remains competitive in the Lafayette-Lake Charles area at 24.6 percent.

The survey found the electorate was overwhelmingly Republican, with GOP voters making up 85.2 percent of respondents, compared to 14.8 percent who identified as having no party affiliation.

Among Republicans, Letlow leads with 31.3 percent, while Cassidy garners only 19 percent. Cassidy performs somewhat better with no-party voters, leading that bloc at 23.6 percent, though Fleming drops to just 14.6 percent among those respondents.

The memo also points to a major image problem for Cassidy, whose unfavorable ratings far exceed those of his rivals.

Cassidy posts a 42.8 percent “very unfavorable” rating among surveyed voters, compared to just 4.8 percent for Fleming and 15.7 percent for Letlow.

President Donald Trump, by contrast, remains deeply popular with the same electorate, earning a 66.2 percent “very favorable” rating, a potential warning sign for Cassidy as he attempts to survive in a Republican primary base still closely aligned with Trump.

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