Kathy Hochul Panics As New Poll Shows GOP Candidate Within Striking Distance

Gov. Kathy Hochul is clinging to a razor-thin lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, according to a new poll commissioned by a pro-Blakeman super PAC that suggests the embattled Democrat could face a much tougher re-election fight than expected.

The survey found 47% of registered voters back Hochul, while 43% support the Nassau County executive. Another 10% remain undecided, giving Republicans hope the race could tighten further before Election Day.

The poll, conducted by Red Oak Strategic for the Strong and Safe super PAC, paints a bleak picture for the Democratic incumbent’s standing with voters.

Just 38% of the 2,000 registered voters surveyed said they view Hochul favorably, while 58% said they have an unfavorable opinion of her.

Her job approval numbers are similarly weak, with only 39% approving of her performance as governor and 56% disapproving.

The survey suggests many New Yorkers are ready for a change.

Only 33% of voters said Hochul deserves another term, while 61% said it is time to give someone else a chance. The poll was conducted from July 7 through July 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

“The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track,” Red Oak Strategic said in its July 21 polling memo to “interested parties.”

Blakeman remains relatively unknown statewide, with 47% of voters saying they have never heard of him or have no opinion. Even so, the poll found 30% view him favorably compared to 23% unfavorably, giving Republicans reason to believe he has room to grow with fewer than 100 days until the Nov. 3 election.

The survey found 57% of voters believe New York is on the wrong track, while only 33% think the state is headed in the right direction.

When asked about the issues driving their vote, most respondents pointed to the cost of living and inflation, followed by the economy, jobs and taxes. Public safety ranked third.

Nearly six in 10 voters, or 57%, blamed politicians for rising living costs, while 35% blamed corporations.

The financial outlook for many New Yorkers also appeared grim.

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According to the poll, 43% said they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, while only 15% said they are better off. The rest reported their finances have stayed about the same.

Independent voters could prove especially troublesome for Hochul if the survey reflects broader sentiment.

“Hochul opens at 47–43 (Hochul +4%) with 10% undecided. Blakeman already leads independents 54%–33%, holds Republicans 83–10, and runs strongest in the suburbs (51%),” the polling memo said.

Despite those numbers, Hochul still enjoys a massive financial advantage.

Campaign finance filings show Friends for Kathy Hochul has roughly $21 million cash on hand, while another $22 million sits in the New York State Democratic Party’s account.

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That is more than four times the combined fundraising haul of Blakeman and the state Republican Party.

Outside groups are expected to play a major role in helping narrow that gap.

Strong and Safe, a pro-Blakeman super PAC backed by MSG chairman James Dolan, has already received major financial support. Earlier this month, MSG Entertainment and MSG Sports each donated $350,000 to the committee, totaling $700,000.

MSG has also contributed $2 million to the Coalition to Restore New York, a political group created by Dolan in 2021 that later donated $300,000 to Strong and Safe.

Red Oak’s turnout model projects about 5.9 million New Yorkers, roughly 44% of the state’s 13.5 million registered voters, will cast ballots this fall.

The poll also found a significant enthusiasm advantage for Republicans, with 73% saying they are much more interested in this year’s governor’s race than in previous elections, compared to 44% of Democrats, a 29-point gap.

Still, Republicans face a steep uphill climb in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1 and roughly one-quarter of voters are independent or unaffiliated.

The survey did not include questions about President Donald Trump, whose standing in deep-blue New York could still influence the race.

History also presents challenges for Republicans. During Trump’s first midterm election in 2018, then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo cruised to re-election over Republican Marc Molinaro as Democrats expanded their power in Albany by flipping the state Senate.

Even so, Hochul‘s six-point victory over former Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin in 2022 showed Republicans can still make statewide races competitive under the right political conditions.

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