Dems Panic As Key Senate Race Takes Huge Swing Toward GOP

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday changed its rating of the open New Hampshire U.S. Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up,” reflecting closer-than-expected polling and the Republican nominee’s name recognition in a state that often splits its tickets.

The contest is open because Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, is retiring. Rep. Chris Pappas, who represents New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, won the Democratic primary on September 8 over several challengers, including Karishma Manzur.

Former Senator John E. Sununu, who served one term from 2003 to 2009, won the Republican nomination the same day. Sununu is the brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu and the son of former Gov. John H. Sununu.

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Despite headwinds against Republicans, there is one Senate race that some in both parties privately concede may be a sleeper offensive opening for the GOP: New Hampshire.

We move this contest from Lean D -> Toss Up.

Read @JessicaTaylor's analysis.https://t.co/9PuF8Ansqi

— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) September 15, 2026

New Hampshire has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and a history of electing Republicans as governor while supporting Democrats in most federal races. Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report’s Senate and governors editor, wrote that both public and private surveys show Sununu running closer to Pappas than many expected after Shaheen’s retirement.

A late-August University of New Hampshire poll found Sununu at 45 percent and Pappas at 43 percent. National Republican committees have also directed substantial spending to the race, which Cook described as a signal that the party sees a viable path.

Taylor said the key question is whether Sununu’s family name and statewide familiarity can offset President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings. She added that the rating could still shift back toward Democrats before Election Day.

Cook uses a seven-point scale. A Lean rating means a race is competitive but one party holds an edge. A Toss Up rating means either party has a realistic chance of winning.

Other forecasters remain split. Inside Elections already rated the race a toss-up, Sabato’s Crystal Ball kept it Lean Democratic, and Decision Desk HQ rated it Likely Democratic.

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