JUST IN: Top Pollster Shows Vulnerable GOP Incumbent Surging In Key Senate Race

Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown are locked in a dead heat in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, with neither candidate pulling away as the campaign enters its final six weeks, a new Quantus Insights poll shows.

Brown draws 45.6% support to Husted’s 45.3% among 695 likely voters surveyed Sept. 21-23. That three-tenths of a percentage point separates the candidates on paper, but falls well inside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Husted has a commanding rural advantage and overwhelming backing from fellow Republicans. Brown is keeping pace with strong urban support and a sizable lead among voters unaffiliated with either party.

The fight between those coalitions leaves the suburbs as critical ground. Brown holds 46% there to Husted’s 44%, with neither candidate establishing much breathing room among a group that accounts for a substantial share of the survey.

The state’s major media markets tell a similar story. Husted leads in the Cincinnati media market 50% to 41%, while Brown leads in the Cleveland-Akron media market 49% to 41%. Columbus is split down the middle, with each candidate taking 45%.

Outside the cities, Husted’s advantage is steep: Rural voters favor him 60% to 33%. Brown counters with a 56% to 36% lead among urban voters.

Party loyalty is strong on both sides. Husted wins 87% of Republicans, while Brown captures 88% of Democrats. Brown draws slightly more crossover support, taking 7% of Republicans compared with Husted’s 4% among Democrats.

But unaffiliated voters give Brown a crucial boost, backing him 51% to 34%. Another 8% remain undecided, giving Husted an opening to cut into that deficit.

Men and women are breaking in opposite directions. Husted leads among men 52% to 40%, while women favor Brown 51% to 40%.

The age breakdown is divided, too. Brown leads 50% to 39% among voters ages 30 to 44, while Husted has a 52% to 41% advantage among those ages 45 to 64. Voters 65 and older favor Husted by a narrower 48% to 46%.

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Brown also leads among voters younger than 30, though that smaller sample makes the finding less precise.

Across the full survey, 5.5% remain undecided. Independent Greg Levy takes 2%, Libertarian Bill Redpath receives 1.1%, and 0.4% choose someone else. Together, those voters leave more than enough room to decide a contest this tight.

Follow-up questions from Quantus Insights do little to break the stalemate.

Including undecided voters who lean toward a candidate puts Brown at 47.3% and Husted at 46.8%. When respondents are given only the two major candidates, Brown takes 46.2% to Husted’s 45.7%. Adding leaners to that matchup produces a 47.6% to 47.2% split.

Those are separate questions put to the same voters, not evidence of movement over time. Each leaves the race effectively tied.

The survey recruited respondents through text-message invitations sent to Ohio voter-file records. Of 719 completed interviews, 24 respondents who said they would not vote were excluded. Results were weighted to the likely electorate.

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