JUST IN: Top Pollster Shows Talarico Falling Behind In Closing Stretch

Quantus Insights released its latest survey of the Texas U.S. Senate race on Tuesday, October 13, and found Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico in a near tie with 23 days remaining until Election Day at the close of fieldwork.

Among likely voters, Paxton received 47.2 percent of the vote while Talarico trailed close behind with 46.7 percent, producing a margin of 0.5 points in favor of Paxton. An additional 2.2 percent of respondents expressed support for Libertarian Ted Brown, while 3.9 percent were undecided.

Neither major-party candidate reached 50 percent, with Brown’s support and undecided voters totaling 6.1 percent.

The survey was conducted from October 9-11 among 854 respondents, with a voters-only ballot base of 839 and a margin of error of approximately ±3.6 percentage points.

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Our latest survey finds Ken Paxton and James Talarico essentially tied in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with 23 days remaining until Election Day at the close of fieldwork.

📊 U.S. Senate Ballot
🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 47.2%
🔵… pic.twitter.com/J89zLKaNsk

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 13, 2026

At the time of release, the RealClearPolitics aggregate placed Talarico ahead 48.1 percent to 45.1 percent, a three-point advantage across surveys ranging from a tie to a six-point Talarico lead. The survey is among the first from pollsters included in the RealClearPolitics average to show Paxton leading in recent weeks, following a series of surveys that had placed Talarico ahead or the race tied.

When breaking down the results along party affiliation lines, independents favored Talarico 52 percent to 37 percent. Democrats supported Talarico at 95 percent, while Republicans backed Paxton at 87 percent. Notably, seven percent of Republican respondents expressed support for Talarico while just two percent of Democrats backed Paxton.

Among age brackets, Paxton led voters 65 and older 56 percent to 39 percent and those ages 45–64 by 49 percent to 45 percent, while Talarico led voters under 30 by 62 percent to 29 percent and ages 30–44 by a smaller margin. Voters 45 and older comprised 66.5 percent of the likely electorate.

Gender and racial divisions followed familiar lines. Women favored Talarico 52 percent to 42 percent; men favored Paxton 53 percent to 41 percent. Paxton led white voters 59 percent to 36 percent, while Talarico led Hispanic voters 55 percent to 37 percent and black voters 82 percent to 10 percent.

Geographically, Talarico led urban voters 60 percent to 34 percent and Paxton led rural voters 64 percent to 30 percent. Suburbs were closer, with Paxton ahead 50 percent to 45 percent.

The survey also measured favorability. Paxton was viewed favorably by 45.8 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 51.8 percent, while Talarico stood at 48.6 percent favorable and 46.8 percent unfavorable. On whether each candidate’s views and values are in line with most Texans, 48.6 percent said Paxton is in line, compared with 45.5 percent for Talarico in line.

When asked about the expected preferences of friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors, 43.1 percent perceived mostly or almost all support for Paxton versus 41.7 percent for Talarico, with 4.5 percent evenly split and 10.6 percent unsure.

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