Top Election Expert Reveals GOP’s Key To Victory In November

During a recent appearance on Fox News’ Special Report, RealClearPolitics co-founder Tom Bevan laid out some underlying midterm elections fundamentals that could prove favorable for the Republican Party down the stretch.

Bevan appeared on the panel to discuss a campaign event in which U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) stumped for U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson in Maine. He noted that the appearance indicates that both parties appear to be placing major emphasis on turning out their most dedicated supporters, as opposed to attempting to sway moderate or low-propensity voters.

“This is a base election. And she is speaking directly to Progressive voters in Maine. Just like Donald Trump is flying around and speaking directly to Maga voters in all of these red states,” Bevan said. He then pointed out that several must-win Senate races have drifted towards the average polling margin of error in states that have produced favorable past results for President Donald Trump.

“There are six Senate races right now that are under two points or less in an our RealClearPolitics average. Trump won five of them, four of them by double digits. If Republicans turn out, they’re going to win a lot of these races,” the veteran election forecaster continued.

“That’s the strategy that Donald Trump and the Republicans are playing right now. Meanwhile, Democrats are trying in Michigan and Maine and other opportunities are trying to activate their base. There is not a whole lot going on trying to play to the middle and win over the independent at this point.”

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If Republicans Turn Out, They're Going To Win A Lot Of These Races: @TomBevanRCPhttps://t.co/L9MpPFt1FM

"There are six Senate races right now under 2 points in our RCP average. Trump won five of those states, four by double digits." pic.twitter.com/i2JkclZ3Mg

— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) October 23, 2026

Around the time of the appearance, RealClearPolitics averages placed several Senate contests within or near a 2-point margin. On October 21, these included Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson led Democrat Josh Turek by 0.1 points; Kansas, where Republican Roger Marshall led Democrat Adam Hamilton by 0.3 points; Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Susan Collins by 1.6 points; and Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Dan Sullivan by 1.2 points.

In addition, Michigan showed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 2.0 points, while Texas showed Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by 2.2 points. Ohio and Minnesota registered slightly wider Democratic Party leads of 2.4 and 3.2 points, respectively.

Bevan noted that Trump carried five of the six states with the narrowest averages in the 2024 presidential election, four of them by double digits. Trump won Iowa by roughly 13 points, Kansas by about 16 points, Alaska by roughly 13 points, and Texas by about 14 points. He also carried Ohio by about 11 points and Michigan by a much narrower margin of roughly 1.4 points.

Maine was the exception among the closest contests, as former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state.

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