CNN’s Harry Enten Crushes Democrat Hopes, Breaks Down Kamala’s ‘Difficult’ Path To Victory

Democrats might be popping the champagne bottles a little too early in celebrating Vice President Kamala Harris’s rise to the top of the ticket, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.

The senior data analyst broke down Harris’s “difficult” path to victory against former President Donald Trump, pointing out that her polling numbers aren’t much better than her boss, who was essentially shoved aside by fellow leaders in the Democratic Party who feared President Joe Biden’s numbers would drag down contests for the U.S. House and Senate.

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“This has been the craziest month in American politics that I can recall,” Enten said, referencing the attempted assassination of Trump and how last month’s debate seems to have happened a lifetime ago. “But here’s the thing — for all of the excitement that Democrats have over Kamala Harris, it is going to be difficult to beat Donald Trump.”

The first hurdle, he said, will be Trump’s favorability ratings. While he has consistently remained a polarizing figure among the electorate, the Republican leader now carries his highest rating on record since he was nearly shot and killed less than two weeks ago. After speaking at the Republican National Convention, Trump carries a 40% approval by ABC/Ipsos and a 46% approval according to Quinnipiac, both records for him.

“The fact is, Donald Trump is more popular now than he ever has been before. So yes, Democrats can make this switcheroo, but they’re still going to have to beat Donald Trump – a Donald Trump who is stronger than he has ever been before,” Enten added.

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The second obstacle is Harris’s own poll numbers against the former president. She draws a marginally better showing among voters than President Joe Biden but is still well behind the defiant frontrunner. Today, Trump leads Harris by 1%, “within the margin” of error and indicating a “close race,” said the analyst.

“But remember of course, in a national popular vote Democrats tend to do better there than they do in the Electoral College, at least when Donald Trump is running for president. So last time around when Joe Biden barely won in the Electoral College, he actually won the national popular vote by four points. So at this point, Donald Trump is running five points better… than he was four years ago against Joe Biden.”

He added. “So at this point, whether you look at the favorable rating, whether you look at horse race polling, we see that Donald Trump is doing significantly better than he was doing four years ago at this point. Kamala Harris is going to have to do better than this, of course, if she wants to win the popular vote but more than that if she wants to win the Electoral College where she’ll likely have to outperform how she’s done nationally because the fact is if you’ve got a tie in the national popular vote that is probably not good enough if you Kamala Harris and you want to win the election against Donald Trump.”

Enten’s figures are backed up by a number of polls conducted before and after President Biden announced on Sunday that he was ending his bid for a second term. The first poll conducted entirely since the weekend shows the Republican besting Harris by 2% nationally while a number of polls started before Sunday show Trump ahead by as much as 10%

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