JUST IN: Trump Surges To Record-High Lead Over Kamala

The political betting market is growing more confident about former President Donald Trump’s chances in November.

Once week after the former president posted a fresh lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, new bets are pushing him to new heights among those predicting he will win a number of critical swing states on November 5th. Among them: Arizona, where prognosticators predict a Trump win by a chasmic 68-32% margin; Georgia, where Trump posts a similar 64-36% lead; and North Carolina, site of a growing FEMA disaster relief controversy and where Trump now leads Harris 63-37%.

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Making matters worse for the Democrat is bettors’ belief that the “blue” wall will not hold in Michigan of Wisconsin. Respectively, Trump is predicted to win by comparably narrower margins of 54-46% and 52-48%. However, in must-win Pennsylvania, President Trump holds a 10-point lead over Harris, 55-45%, among those placing their bets. The only state still favored to be carried by Harris is Nevada, and just barely as she posts a 51-49% lead among bettors. Yet even there, recent polling has shown Trump ahead by as much a 5%.

Taken together, 57% of bettors are now predicting a Trump victory in November, the largest lead he has held since Harris began her campaign in August. At the height of his lead over President Joe Biden, nearly 3 in 4 bettors predicted his victory was assured.

.@Polymarket – Presidential Election Winner

🟥 Donald Trump: 57%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 43%

Sept. 19 odds – 🔵 Harris 52-47%
——
Swing States (chance of winning)

Arizona – 🔴 Trump 68-32%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 64-36%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 63-37%
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 55-45%… https://t.co/UgbEdqbv88 pic.twitter.com/2aOusDLuof

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2024

Good news for the Trump campaign continues to roll in from swing states around the nation. Since the first and only debate between running mates J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Gov. Tim Walz, Yahoo News/YouGov has seen the race between Harris and Trump tighten to just 2%: the Democrat now leads the Republican 48% to 46% in the polls, which consistently underestimate his support. Mark Halperin, the author and journalist who has chronicled the rise and fall of presidential aspirants for decades, said last week that he sees voters’ dissatisfaction with Harris coming through in poll after poll.

“What’s happening now with Kamala Harris is an experiment,” Halperin told 2WAY TV in an interview. “Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you in private polling is she’s got a problem now. It’s not cheering for Trump. It’s not predicting Trump will win, [but] she’s got a problem.” He pointed to a recent New York Times poll indicating Harris is up 3% nationally, a position that puts her on the “bubble” of a lead which isn’t guaranteed. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported on Harris’s struggle to connect with working-class voters in places like Wisconsin where internal polling from Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) campaign has shown Harris trailing Trump by the same margin. “There’s no path without Wisconsin,” Halperin said. “Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse than before.”