JUST IN: Top Election Guru Releases New Model Showing Massive Shift In Race

The latest election model from polling expert Nate Silver shows a dramatic shift in the 2024 presidential race, with significant gains for former President Donald Trump.

Silver’s updated model shows Harris holding a slim lead at 50.1%, down 4.8% from earlier in the week, while Trump has surged to 49.7%, up by 4.8% on the week. The changes show a notable shift in key battleground states, particularly in the Midwest and Sun Belt regions, where Trump’s momentum is growing.

In the Sun Belt, Trump’s odds now sit above 60% in states like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, with Nevada being the only exception where the race remains more competitive. Silver’s model also shows Wisconsin as a virtual toss-up, with Harris narrowly leading Trump 52-48. Pennsylvania is another crucial battleground where Harris is ahead 54-46, though the gap is closing fast.

The new forecast contrasts where the race stood just a week ago. Post-debate polling initially gave Harris a slight edge in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, as more data has come in, the trend has shifted in Trump’s favor, bringing the national race to an effective tie.

Trump's Sun Belt odds all over 60% except NV.

WI is 52-48 Harris/Trump.

PA, 54-46 Harris/Trump.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 15, 2024

One of the key factors contributing to this shift appears to be a leveling off in support for Harris in the Midwest. Early post-debate polls gave the vice president a noticeable bump, but those numbers have since stabilized. Silver notes, “We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate.” While Harris still leads in these states, even a small drop in her numbers could be critical as Election Day approaches.

Silver’s latest update also highlights Trump’s growing strength in traditionally conservative states that had been considered competitive. Arizona, for example, which many analysts believed could lean toward Harris, now shows Trump with a comfortable lead. This is part of a growing trend in which Trump appears to be consolidating his support in Republican-leaning states while also making gains in key swing states.

Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election came down to slim margins in several key battleground states. He lost the Electoral College by a vote of 306 to 232, but some of the individual state results were extremely close. For instance, in Georgia, Biden won by just over 11,000 votes, marking the first time the state went blue since 1992. In Arizona, another traditionally Republican state, the margin was under 11,000 votes.

Similarly, Wisconsin saw a narrow margin of around 20,000 votes separating the two candidates. These states, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, where the margins were less than two percentage points, collectively determined the final outcome. Had Trump been able to flip a small percentage of voters in these key states, the result could have gone the other way, making the 2020 election one of the closest in recent history, despite Biden’s comfortable Electoral College victory.

The tightening of the 2024 race has both campaigns ramping up their efforts in the final stretch. While Silver’s model is not a crystal ball, it has historically been a reliable predictor of election outcomes. The race remains incredibly close, and with many key battleground states still within the margin of error, both candidates will need to maximize turnout and shore up their bases in the coming weeks.

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