JUST IN: Republicans Take Surprising Early Vote Lead In Blue East Coast State

Anecdotal evidence showing Republicans capitalizing on early-vote opportunities hit the East Coast on Wednesday, as election officials in New Jersey confirmed that conservatives are turning out in droves, signaling a potential sea change in Garden State politics.

Voter turnout has surpassed 15% statewide, according to the NJ Globe, with 381,147 in-person early votes cast on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. So far, 1,018,625 voters have cast their ballots, and those numbers are good news for Republicans in NJ-07, home to a competitive race between incumbent Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-NJ) and Democratic challenger Sue Altman. The 7th, which encompasses the suburbs west of Newark, is seeing Republicans outpace Democrats in early voting by 7,385 votes, 46%-30%, a trend that is repeating itself at the state level: as of Wednesday, 144,644 Republicans have voted (37.9%), compared to 139,999 Democrats (36.7%).

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Even in mail-in voting, which Republicans have long challenged is ripe for voter fraud, GOP voters are keeping pace with Democrats or not far behind. Sixty-four percent of Democrats have returned their mail-in ballots while 61% of Republicans have done so. The window for mail-in ballots is closing fast: already, nearly six in 10 vote-by-mail ballots have been received by the state, the Globe states. That’s good news for Kean, who narrowly beat back a challenger in 2022 by less than 9,000 votes. Since then, the Republican hasn’t taken things for granted, out-raising Altman and earning financial support from Elon Musk, who has invested heavily in the race. Keeping Kean’s seat is also a top priority for House Republicans, who hold the slimmest of leads and need to build on it if they are to control the lower chamber confidently starting next year.

The enthusiasm for early voting among Garden State Republicans mirrors results in Nevada where Republican mail-in ballots are outpacing Democrats for the first time since the method was approved by state lawmakers in 2020. Early voter data produced by Nevada’s secretary of state show that Republicans have a 2.5% edge in turnout, a remarkable feat considering the reticence by party members to embrace a method of voting that leaders have long said is ripe with opportunities for fraud. A record 333,000 voters, or 16.6% of the electorate, have cast their ballots as of Wednesday, but the impressive number is not leading to outsize gains in the urban Las Vegas area where Democrats hold just a 1-point lead in exit polls. By contrast, Republicans hold a nearly 3% edge in statewide turnout; if that result holds, and traditionally conservative Election Day turnout also favors President Trump, he can be expected to pick up the state’s six electoral votes.

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