‘Bet On Him’: Top New York Times Columnist Predicts Trump Victory

As Election Day dawns, the nation is bracing for one of the most closely contested and highly contentious presidential elections in history. With voters streaming to the polls to decide between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, speculation over who will emerge victorious has reached a fever pitch.

In a surprising twist, Ross Douthat, a prominent New York Times columnist, has thrown his weight behind Trump, predicting that the former president will defy the odds and retake the White House. Douthat made his prediction early this morning in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter). “What I’ve been expecting since the spring, no reason to hedge now,” he wrote. Douthat’s “model,” as he describes it, draws on the unique trajectory of Trump’s previous campaigns.

He noted that Trump won in 2016 despite lagging in polls, came close in 2020 despite facing even worse odds, and now, with polling in a near-deadlock, Douthat believes Trump is poised for a comeback. According to Douthat’s projections, Trump is positioned to secure a substantial 312 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris would fall short with 226. Notably, he places Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—all pivotal Rust Belt states that have leaned Democratic in recent years—in the Republican column.

In addition to the Rust Belt, Douthat’s map signals Republican wins in other swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Arizona and Georgia, once reliably red states, turned blue in 2020, with demographic shifts and urban voter turnout contributing to Democratic wins.

My “model” — Trump won when he was behind in the polls in 2016, almost won when he was way behind in the polls in 2020, now he’s even in the polls with his best numbers ever, nothing in the early vote to strongly contra-indicate his victory, bet on him to win.

— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) November 5, 2024

“Bet on him to win,” he concluded. For many Americans, the 2024 election feels like a repeat of 2016, with a candidate who consistently polarized voters and confounded pollsters. Trump has managed to maintain a devoted base of supporters, and this cycle, he’s pulled his best polling numbers yet. Douthat’s bold prediction arrives as many media outlets and political analysts hedge their bets, citing polling data that remains within the margin of error.

But according to Douthat, past elections have shown that polls can be deceiving. He points to the early voting numbers, which he claims do not present any major red flags for Trump. Polling data from institutions like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics continue to show a neck-and-neck race, with neither candidate holding a definitive edge.

As polls close later today, all eyes will be on the swing states and the critical suburban districts that may ultimately decide the outcome. If Douthat’s prediction holds, it would mark one of the most remarkable political comebacks in modern history. However, if Harris prevails, it will signal a renewed mandate for the Democratic Party and an endorsement of her vision for America. Only time will tell whether Douthat’s “bet” on Trump will pay off.

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