Politics
Biden Job Growth Revised Down By 910,000 Jobs In Stunning Report
The Labor Department on Tuesday released the preliminary estimate of its annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, which revealed that U.S. job growth was significantly weaker than previously believed during the final months of the Biden presidency.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) goes through benchmarking process on an annual basis in order to obtain more accurate estimates from state unemployment records that are published on a quarterly basis, in addition to business birth and death records. This process allows for a more accurate reading of the job market when compared with the agency’s monthly surveys that are used to craft jobs reports, as well as correcting reporting and non-response errors that occur every month.
On Tuesday, BLS published its first estimate of the annual revision, which saw a massive downward revision of 911,000 jobs created between April 2024 and March of this year. Tuesday’s data release serves as a preliminary estimate of the final benchmark revision, which is set to incorporated into the agencies January 2026 jobs report in February of next year.
The preliminary estimate revealed that private payrolls were reduced by 880,000 jobs, while government employment dropped by 31,000 jobs.
When breaking down the data further, the trade, transportation and utilities category saw employment revised downward by 226,000 jobs, including 126,200 jobs in retail trade and 110,300 in wholesale trade, Fox Business reported. These losses were partially offset by gains of 6,600 jobs in transportation and warehousing and 3,700 jobs in the utility sector.
In addition, leisure and hospitality employment dropped by 176,000 in the preliminary estimate. Professional and business services employment was revised down by 158,000 jobs, while gains in the information sector were revised down by 67,000. Financial activities jobs were also revised down by 37,000.
Manufacturing jobs were revised down by 95,000 while construction employment was reduced by 29,000 jobs. Mining and logging jobs saw a reduction of 4,000. Private education and health services employment dropped by 35,000 jobs, and other services accounted for a decline of 51,000 jobs.
BLS noted that overall, its preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision reduced employment by 0.6 percent over the 11-month time period. Over the last 10 years, BLS’ annual benchmark revisions on average increased total employment by 0.2 percent, Fox Business reported.
Last year’s BLS preliminary estimate suggested a downward revision of 818,000 jobs, the largest since 2009. When its final revision was published this past January, the downward revision came in smaller than initially reported at 589,000.
LPL chief economist Jeffrey Roach noted that monthly job gains from April 2024 to March 2025 were reduced from 147,000 to 71,000 in the benchmark estimate.
“The labor market appears weaker than originally reported. A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight the need to ease rates. Investors should expect the Fed to officially start the rate-cutting campaign at the next meeting. Solid household wealth is keeping the middle and upper-income consumer afloat but has the economy in an a-typical business cycle,” Roach explained.
The latest report suggests that President Donald Trump inherited a much weaker economy than previously reported. Trump fired then-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer following a weaker than expected jobs report for July, which revised employment in May and June downward by 258,000 jobs. Trump accused McEntarfer of releasing “rigged” figures due to political bias.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to the impending revision when defending the Trump Administration’s economic policies during an appearance on “Meet The Press” this past Sunday.
“We’re going to get the revisions for last year next week, and there may be as big as an 800 ,000 job downward revision again. This would be the second downward revision. So I’m not sure what these people who collect the data have been doing. It’s good. We need good data,” the secretary said.
