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Clear Frontrunner Emerges In Race To Succeed Ron DeSantis In Tallahassee

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A new poll from Quantus Insights found U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) holding a commanding lead over his challengers in Florida’s upcoming Republican gubernatorial primary.

The poll, which was sponsored by America First Insight, surveyed 562 likely voters and carried a margin of error of ±4.1 percent. Results focused on the 2026 Republican primary for governor, along with related questions on candidate familiarity, awareness of an endorsement by President Donald Trump, job approval ratings for President Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis, and preferences in a hypothetical 2028 Republican presidential primary.

In terms of the gubernatorial primary, Donalds far out-performed his challengers with 49.6 percent of the vote. Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins trailed in a distant second with 15.7 percent, while 12.4 percent of respondents expressed support for political newcomer James Fishback.

An additional 3.5 percent backed former Florida Speaker of the House Paul Renner, while 5.3 percent expressed support for another candidate. The remaining 13.5 percent remained undecided.

All told, Donalds held a 33.9-point lead over Collins, the next-highest candidate.

Support for Donalds appeared consistent across multiple demographic groups, including near even support both among men and women. White Republican voters gave him 47.0 percent, while nonwhite Republican voters gave him 63.4 percent. Voters age 65 and older, a substantial portion of the primary electorate, supported him at 56.1 percent.

Collins recorded his strongest result among rural voters at 26.5 percent, while Fishback’s highest share came among Republicans between the ages of 30 to 44, at 37.8 percent.

A separate question asked respondents which candidates they were familiar with. Donalds was familiar to 60.3 percent of those surveyed, a figure that was once again significantly higher than his challengers, as just 9.9 percent of respondents said the same of Collins and 9.1 percent for Fishback. An additional 7.6 percent indicated familiarity with none of the listed candidates.

Respondents were also asked whether they were aware that President Trump had endorsed a candidate in the race. A total of 88.9 percent said they were aware, while 11.1 percent said they were not. When asked about the effect of the endorsement, 44.5 percent stated that it did not affect their vote, 41.2 percent said it made them more likely to support Donalds, 11.9 percent said it made them more likely to support another candidate, and 2.5 percent were not sure.

Job approval ratings were measured for both President Trump and Governor DeSantis among the same group of likely Republican primary voters. For President Trump, 78.2 percent approved of the job he is doing, 16.4 percent disapproved, and 2.3 percent were not sure. For Governor DeSantis, 93.2 percent approved, 6.3 percent disapproved, and 0.6 percent were not sure.

The poll also included a question on self-identified political identity within the Republican Party. Among respondents, 28.1 percent identified as MAGA Republicans, 27.3 percent as America First Republicans, 26.7 percent as traditional conservative Republicans, 8.3 percent as moderate Republicans, 3.9 percent as libertarian-leaning Republicans, 2.9 percent as something else, and 2.8 percent were not sure. Combined, 55.4 percent identified as either MAGA or America First Republicans.

Lastly, respondents were asked whom they would support if the 2028 Republican presidential primary were held today. Secretary of State Marco Rubio received 42.0 percent of the vote, while Vice President JD Vance trailed in second with 24.2 percent. An additional 12.9 percent expressed support for Governor DeSantis, while an additional 4.9 percent preferred another candidate not listed.

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