After Thursday night’s Bronx rally, former President Donald Trump might have reshaped the battleground ahead of the next presidential election according to CNN’s data expert Harry Enton. The former president declared his confidence in winning New York—a state that has not favored a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan 44 years ago.
Speaking candidly on the liberal news network on Friday, Enton revealed the impact of Trump’s rally in Kratona Park, suggesting a shift in voter trends that could spell trouble for President Joe Biden. “Look, this is Donald Trump’s hometown paper, the New York Post. He got the headline that he wanted out of this, and this is something that Trump is so important to him. But it’s more than that.”
The 2020 election results showed Biden winning the precinct by only 69 points—a sharp drop from Hillary Clinton’s margin. “This is a sign of the Hispanic movement that we saw last cycle, right? Where we saw, although Hispanics still favored the Democratic candidate in Joe Biden, they were less likely to favor him than they did Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama both times. And it’s not just there that happened,” Enton continued.
According to CNN data, a significant shift in Hispanic voter support is becoming apparent across the United States, impacting key electoral regions from Southeast Florida to Southern Texas, and extending to Los Angeles. Enton highlights that President Biden’s once robust 25-point lead among Hispanic voters during the 2020 election cycle has sharply decreased to just seven points.
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The narrowing gap suggests a potential historical performance for Trump, with his support among Hispanic voters reaching 44 percent. This support would be the strongest showing for a Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. The trend also extends beyond Hispanic voters to include black voters, who, according to Enton, have shown increased favorability towards Trump compared to four years ago.
CNN further addressed the strategic implications for Biden’s re-election campaign, particularly focusing on the Great Lakes region. While Hispanics constitute about 10% of likely voters nationally, their representation in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is significantly lower, at 3%, 2%, and 4%, respectively. Enton suggested that Biden’s best path to securing re-election may involve prioritizing these states, where the Hispanic vote is less influential compared to other regions.
A recent Siena College poll revealed that Biden is ahead of Trump in New York by just 9 points—47% to 38%—among 1,191 registered voters. This is a significant tightening compared to four years ago when Biden won the state by 23 points.
“Who said we’re not going to win New York?” Trump said yesterday. “We’re going to win New York.”
“These millions and millions of people that are coming into our country — the biggest impact and the biggest negative impact is against our Black population and our Hispanic population,” Trump said. With an apparent realignment in key voter demographics, the upcoming election could see a dramatically different landscape, challenging Biden’s path to a second term.
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