Politics
Data Expert Reveals Favorites For Next Pope As Conclave Begins
As the 2025 papal conclave gets underway following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, speculation is swirling around who will emerge as the next spiritual leader of the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics. And while the outcome remains a divine mystery, data expert and analyst Harry Enten is offering some insight into who the frontrunners may be—at least according to the numbers.
“Favorite is a relative term in this particular case. Favorites, they’re favorites,” Enten explained. Among the most talked-about candidates is Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, currently serving as the Vatican Secretary of State.
With a 29% chance according to betting markets, Parolin is seen as a continuity figure—a seasoned diplomat aligned with Francis’ pragmatic style. However, critics point to his role in internal Vatican bureaucracy and past handling of abuse investigations.
Close behind is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, polling at 19%. Tagle, often described as the “Asian Francis,” is a progressive voice in the Church, known for his openness toward divorced Catholics and the LGBTQ community. While once a rising star, observers suggest his influence may have dimmed in recent years.
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Also in the mix are Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (10%) and Cardinal Péter Erdő, who represent opposing poles within the Church. Zuppi, a progressive and peace negotiator from Bologna, aligns with Pope Francis’s pastoral emphasis. Erdő, the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, is backed by more conservative factions and is known for his adherence to traditional Catholic doctrine. According to Enten, Erdő and other conservatives may be part of the 42% “other” slice of the pie, a wildcard group that could upset expectations.
“Maybe it’s a conservative. Maybe it’s Erdo, who’s a hard conservative from Hungary. Maybe it’s Pizzaballa, who of course, is a softer conservative,” Enten added, referencing Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Pizzaballa made headlines in 2023 when he offered himself in exchange for hostages during a Middle East crisis, earning admiration for his bravery and dedication to peace.
Enten warned against putting too much stock in betting odds. “Francis back in 2013, he was just a 4% chance according to the betters to be the next Pope. So this gives you an idea. Sometimes the betters are pretty gosh darn good and the favorite goes on to win. But sometimes the betters ain’t too hot to try.”
In other words, surprises are not uncommon in papal elections. The conclave that elected Pope Francis caught many off guard, and with 133 voting cardinals locked away in the Sistine Chapel and sworn to secrecy, alliances can shift rapidly.
Enten also offered some historical trivia: 1503 was the year of the shortest conclave. It only took 10 hours. By contrast, the longest conclave in Church history dragged on for 2.75 years between 1268 and 1271. But since 1900, most conclaves have lasted less than five days.
While other names like Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana), Cardinal Robert Prevost (U.S.), and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France) remain in the conversation, geography, ideology, and Church politics all play into who ultimately emerges.
For now, the world waits. The white smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney will signal when the cardinals have made their choice.
