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Election Expert Identifies Game-Changing Trend In Swing State’s Early Vote

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3 weeks ago

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With Election Day a little more than a week away, voters are already turning out in large numbers for early voting across swing states. The trend is not only reshaping the campaign dynamics but also providing crucial insight into how the November 5 contest might unfold. As data pours in, Pennsylvania has become a critical state to watch with notable shifts in absentee and mail-in voting patterns.

DecisionDesk HQ election expert Michael Pruser highlighted a surprising trend in Pennsylvania’s early voting turnout in a recent update on social media. Pruser shared data showing a marked uptick in absentee voting across party lines, with Democrats leading significantly. According to his report, Democrats have returned 819,112 ballots, while Republicans have submitted 438,017, followed by 145,778 from other voters. Despite the current Democratic lead in early returns, Pruser called out the crucial shift in the coming days.

“The way this is going to work down the stretch is simple,” Pruser tweeted. “When that stops, the GOP return rate goes flying because it is no longer bogged down with a significant addition of new, unreturned requests daily. The last five PA reports (Thursday – Wednesday morning) will show R return rate gains of at least 0.5%.”

“This is a Republican-friendly environment. The changes in registration and demographics have flipped states largely favorable to Democrats,” Pruser wrote of the swing-state races overall.

This acceleration is significant for both campaigns. Pennsylvania has been a key battleground in recent presidential elections, swinging narrowly toward Joe Biden in 2020 after Trump’s narrow victory in 2016. With both campaigns focusing heavily on ground game efforts, the evolving turnout dynamics could influence campaign strategies in the final stretch.

The trend Pruser notes isn’t limited to Pennsylvania. According to him, similar changes are evident in states like Nevada and North Carolina, where early voting turnout is tilting more favorably for Republicans than in previous elections. He cites changes in voter registration, demographic shifts, and other factors that have contributed to this more “Republican-friendly environment.”

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“For me, it’s a validation of what we see everywhere,” Pruser explained. “The data will not show you anything to do with who votes for who, but we do know the electorate is as Republican as it’s ever been. NV and NC will likely see tilt R turnouts for the first time in a Presidential election.”

Historically, Democrats have relied heavily on early voting and absentee ballots, while Republicans have often favored in-person voting on Election Day. This year, however, a larger effort by Republicans to boost early voting turnout could help tighten the gap in swing states.

The acceleration of returns among Republicans could have implications for voter turnout models and polling projections, which often rely heavily on early vote patterns. If Pennsylvania’s early vote numbers continue to shift toward Republicans as Pruser predicts, it could signal a better-than-expected turnout for former President Trump in the nation’s most critical states.

As the window for absentee ballot requests closes and early voting continues, Pennsylvania and other swing states will remain a focal point. Pennsylvania’s early voting numbers might just be the tip of the iceberg, with potential surprises still ahead.

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