NEW: Pennsylvania Exit Polls Show Trump With Lead

Exit polls conducted by NBC News are providing excellent results for former President Trump, as the network found independents breaking for the former president by a six-percentage-point margin.

The network’s exit poll found Trump leading among independent voters in the Keystone State with 50 percent of the vote compared with 46 percent for Vice President Kamala Harris. If the results materialize, it would represent a massive shift for the former president, as Joe Biden carried independents by eight points.

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In Georgia, a CNN exit poll found the former president leading his Democratic Party challenger by 11 percentage points among independents, which would represent a 20-point swing in favor of Trump when compared with 2020 results.

If former President Trump is able to secure the battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, Harris will need to sweep the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania has widely been viewed as the most pivotal of the three blue wall states, as it is considered the most likely to flip to the former president. Trump narrowly won the Keystone State in 2020, while President Biden, who was born in Scranton and frequently claims Pennsylvania as his home state, won by roughly 80,000 votes in 2020.

In addition to the NBC News exit polls, Republicans have received encouraging mail-in voting results from the blue stronghold of Allegheny County, which encompasses the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. In 2020, Biden carried Allegheny County with 80 percent of the vote. Harris has secured 71.4 percent of the early vote, a nine-point swing in favor of the former president.

PA MAIL IN UPDATE

Harris: 71.4%
Trump: 28.6%

NOTE: this is almost entirely Allegheny County

For reference… this was 2020 in Allegheny County

Biden: 80%
Trump: 20% pic.twitter.com/e3MeLtl7jY

— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) November 6, 2024

Republicans have also significantly narrowed the Democrat lead in voter registrations in Pennsylvania. Last year, 19,321 voters from the state switched from Democrat to “other,” while a whopping 36,341 went from the Democratic Party to the GOP side of the aisle. In total, in 2023, 55,662 Democrats abandoned the party. For 2024, the data reveals that 51,937 Democrats have changed their affiliation to “other,” while 61,126 became Republicans.

Results in Pennsylvania are expected to come in at a somewhat slow pace, as state election law prohibits the counting of early ballots until after the polls close.

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