Final Iowa Poll Forecasts Great Night For President Trump

As we approach ‘Super Tuesday’ in the 2024 Presidential Primary election, the final polls are emerging which show former President Donald J. Trump retaining his early lead. The surprise comes in the form of the battle for runner-up behind Trump.

Polling from The Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage shared via X by Interactive polls shows that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have closed to within one point of one another at 18.5% and 19.3% respectively. The poll was conducted between Jan. 12-14 among 1,092 likely voting Iowans and shows the two Governors have closed to within the margin of error at 2.9%.

📊 IOWA GOP CAUCUS FINAL POLL

• Trump — 52.1% (+32.8)
• DeSantis — 19.3%
• Haley — 18.5%
• Ramaswamy — 6.5%
• Hutchinson — 0.7%

• Trafalgar (B) | @InsiderPolling (B)
• 1,092 LV | 01/12-14 | MoE: ±2.9%https://t.co/RyNWfQSweR pic.twitter.com/0wU4t3f8RF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 15, 2024

Pharmaceutical entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy trails well behind both at 6.5% with even the most optimistic interpretation keeping him locked below the 10% line while former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, who announced his intent to stay in the race on Sunday, The Guardian said, lingers at 0.7%.

Former President Donald Trump enjoys a nearly unassailable 52.1% in the poll, a commanding lead of 32.8 points.

The Iowa caucuses begin Monday evening Jan. 15th and to say that the caucuses are all about ‘ground game’ understates the fickle nature of the unorthodox system. While Trump’s dominance in the contest remains almost completely assured, the runner-up slot, crucial to the continuation of any serious campaign, appears to be wide open with Haley and DeSantis statistically neck and neck, and a Ramaswamy breakaway not impossible.

In recent Iowa events, the rhetoric and competition between Haley, DeSantis and Ramaswamy have become increasingly hostile and while typically focused on Trump, they have now pivoted toward each other as well.

DeSantis posted several excerpts from the CNN Republican presidential debate on Jan. 10th in which only he and Haley participated, as did Haley. Prior to the CNN debate, he attacked Haley in very general terms with various video clips, writing, “Nikki Haley is disparaging the Iowa Caucuses and insulting you. I will always defend Iowa’s values of faith, family, and freedom. While Donald Trump is focused on himself and Haley is focused on big donors, I hope to earn your support on January 15 — I won’t let you down!”

Nikki Haley is disparaging the Iowa Caucuses and insulting you.

I will always defend Iowa’s values of faith, family, and freedom.

While Donald Trump is focused on himself and Haley is focused on big donors, I hope to earn your support on January 15 — I won’t let you down! pic.twitter.com/1jm1U9M99h

— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) January 8, 2024

Conversely, Haley has attacked DeSantis on his congressional and gubernatorial record.

Ron DeSantis voted to increase the debt ceiling in Congress. You can’t fix Washington’s spending crisis with the same people who created the crisis to begin with.

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) January 9, 2024

At the same time, Trump is attacking both on the non-viability of their campaigns in the face of his overwhelming support. He wrote to TruthSocial,

“Fox & Friends is giving DeSanctimonious & Haley one last shot. They are working hard, even using an old CNN Fake Poll, which shows I am only up on Birdbrain by 9 points in New Hampshire (all other polls say 20 to 25 points up!). Why are they using CNN polls? That’s why! Nikki is using an old poll to show she’s beating Crooked Joe. She’s not. Almost all new polls show she is being decimated by him. I am beating Crooked Joe, by a lot, in the polls. MAGA!”