Four-star Air Force General Mike Minihan made major waves when he sent a memo to all of the air wing commanders in Air Mobility Command, along with the other Air Force operational commanders, on Friday. In the memo, he told them that he predicts the US getting involved in a war with China by 2025.
Writing in the memo on why he predicts a war, General Minihan said, according to NBC News, which obtained a copy of the memo, that he thinks war will occur because Xi is firmly ensconced in power, America will be distracted with a sure to be a contentious presidential election, and Taiwan will also have a presidential election. In his words:
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
He then went on to order the officers to come up with operational plans for a fight with China and said that his ultimate goal was to build “a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain.”
Air Mobility Command said the memo was authentic, telling NBC News “This is an authentic internal memo from General Minihan addressed to his subordinate command teams. His order builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready the Mobility Air Forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail.”
Similarly, the Defense Department Press Secretary said “The National Defense Strategy makes clear that China is the pacing challenge for the Department of Defense and our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.”
U.S. Representative Michael McCaul (R-TX), the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, appeared on “Fox News Sunday” and said that he agrees with General Minihan’s assessment, saying “I hope he’s wrong . . .I think he’s right, though, unfortunately.”
Continuing, Rep. McCaul then said “We have to be prepared for this. And it could happen … as long as Biden is in office — projecting weakness as he did with Afghanistan that led to Putin invading Ukraine — that the odds are very high we could see a conflict with China and Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific.”
Adding to the risk of such a conflict is that the US has drained its weapon stockpiles by supplying the Ukrainians, as Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Wall Street Journal, saying:
“The bottom line is the defense industrial base, in my judgment, is not prepared for the security environment that now exists.”
“How do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind of scenario?”
By: Will Tanner. Follow me on Twitter @Will_Tanner_1