Gavin Newsom’s 2028 Aspirations Take Major Hit While JD Vance’s Odds Surge

A new Harvard Harris poll released this week offers an early look at the 2028 presidential field, with former Vice President Kamala Harris topping the Democratic side and Vice President JD Vance running away from the Republican pack.

While the next White House race is still years off, early polling is already shaping the conversation as would-be contenders test their standing with voters following the bruising 2024 election cycle.

Among Democrats, Harris leads with 39 percent support, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 30 percent. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York trails with 12 percent, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro pulls 9 percent and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker registers 7 percent. Another 4 percent said they would back someone else.

On the Republican side, Vance dominates the field with 53 percent support. Donald Trump Jr. comes in second at 21 percent, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 17 percent. Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson lags behind with 5 percent, while 3 percent chose someone else.

The survey questioned 2,000 registered voters on Jan. 28 and Jan. 29 and carries a margin of error of 1.99 percent.

The poll also measured favorability, showing Vance at 38 percent, ahead of Rubio at 34 percent. Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez each posted 32 percent favorability, while Carlson stood at 27 percent.

West Pittston, Pennsylvania, United States, July 16 2025: Vice President JD Vance speaks about President Trumps One Big Beautiful Bill at Don’s Machine Shop in Luzerne County, PA

Trump fueled speculation about Vance’s future last summer when asked whether the vice president was the heir to the MAGA movement.

“Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it’s too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point,” Trump said.

Political analysts say the results largely reflect political gravity rather than surprise momentum.

“The sitting Vice President is usually the default choice so this is not surprising. And Trump has mentioned him along with Rubio. But if you are looking for the leaders, see who Trump plays up the most, since the MAGA base so far has been playing ‘follow the leader’ in siding with Trump’s positions on issues and it would seem attitudes toward people,” Columbia University political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro told Newsweek via email on Monday.

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