Politics
NRCC Releases List Of 26 House Seats Republicans Want To Flip In Midterm Elections
The National Republican National Committee (NRCC) has released of 26 Democrat-held seats that will be top targets to flip in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.
In a recent press release, the NRCC noted that in the 2018 “blue wave” cycle, there were only 12 House Democrats in districts that were carried by President Trump in 2016, while there were 25 Republicans in Clinton-won districts. This cycle, there are 13 Democrats in Trump-won districts and just three Republicans in districts that were carried by Vice President Harris back in November.
While the opposition party typically performs well in midterm elections, cratering favorability ratings for the Democratic Party and a difficult map in both the House and Senate have led to a more challenging midterms outlook than usual.
The outlook gets even worse when accounting for trends, as a whopping 419 congressional districts have shifted to the right since 2020. Of that number, 65 districts have trended towards Republicans by double digits.
“Republican gains among Latino voters helped flip districts like CO-08 and PA-07 in 2024 while putting Democrat-held Hispanic-heavy seats — such as NJ-09, TX-28, and TX-34, which all swung over 25% right since 2012 — at risk for Democrats, expanding the GOP’s offensive map in 2026,” the NRCC wrote in its press release.
“Strong support from working-class voters in the Rust Belt helped flip Democrat-held seats in MI-07 and PA-08, which have swung 21% to the right since 2012, reinforcing Republican momentum among working-class voters,” the release continued.
NRCC chair Richard Hudson then announced a list of 26 Democrat-held House seats that will be heavily targeted for Republican flips this cycle.
At the top of the list is U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), a self-styled moderate who won by less than 3,000 votes against former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault in a race that took several days to call last year. Golden has represented Maine’s Second Congressional District, a largely rural area, since 2019. The district currently grades as R+6 according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index and was carried by President Trump by nearly 10 percentage points back in November.
Golden, like many vulnerable Democrats, has at times offered criticisms of the party’s messaging and direction as a party. He has largely voted in line with the party, however, including a recent “no” vote on a bill that would have banned biological males from competing in women’s/girl’s sports.
The Maine Democrat has also been exploring the possibility of challenging Senator Susan Collins (D-ME), or running for governor when current office-holder Janet Mills terms out in 2026.
Golden Declares victory in 2022
The NRCC also listed New York’s Third Congressional District towards the top of its list of 26 flip targets for the midterms. The seat is currently held by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), who won a special election after former Rep. George Santos was expelled from Congress. The district is currently graded as D+2 on the Cook PVI and was one of 12 districts that elected a Democrat congressional representative despite voting for President Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Florida’s 23rd Congressional District, which is currently held by Democrat Rep. Jared Moskowitz, was also listed as a top priority. The D+1 district has largely lived up to its Cook PVI, as former Vice President Harris managed to win it by two percent. The district did break for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in 2022, however, while Moskowitz has long been floated as a top gubernatorial candidate himself when DeSantis terms out in 2026.
If Moskowitz does indeed decide to run for governor, the seat could become one of the most likely Republican flips.
Additional targets include Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), a moderate Democrat who has long voted with Republicans on immigration and not much else, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-OR), who represents an R+5 district, and Rep. Adam Gray (D-CA), who won by less than 5,000 votes last cycle.
“Thanks to President Donald Trump, we believe the 2026 election is an opportunity election for House Republicans. We are focused on the Trump agenda, which is very focused on the American people, while Democrats are completely out of touch,” NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson told Fox News.
When asked about some of the more ambitious targets — some of which gold double-digit advantages for Democrats according to Cook PVI — Hudson described the party’s outlook as “bullish.”
“Republicans are on offense, thanks to Donald Trump. You know, and if you look at the votes, the House of Democrats have taken in just the last couple of weeks, you know, they voted for the largest tax increase in American history. They voted to cut the child tax credit in half. They voted against many bills we put up to make your community safer,” Hudson said.
“They are just completely out of touch. And, and then the last, last fight we’ve had every Democrat in the house, but one said, we want to shut the government down. And what was the principle they were fighting for? They want to preserve waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government. It’s silly.”
He also pointed to the record number of Hispanic voters who shifted right in 2026 as reason to be hopeful in some of the more seemingly out of reach districts.
“Some of the seats you mentioned, the Henry Cuellar seat, we believe Rio Grande Valley of Texas, the Central Valley of California. You have a number of majority Hispanic districts that have been trending our way for a long time. And 13 of these 26 seats were carried by President Donald Trump in the last,” the North Carolina lawmaker added.
