Incumbent GOP Senator Falls To Third In Primary Race: Poll

A new Emerson College Polling/KLFY News 10 survey suggests Sen. Bill Cassidy is running third in Louisiana’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, trailing state Treasurer John Fleming and Rep. Julia Letlow.

The poll finds 28% of likely GOP primary voters backing Fleming, 27% supporting Letlow and 21% backing Cassidy. Another 22% said they were undecided.

“If the Republican Primary for Senate were held tomorrow, the poll indicates the race would move to a June runoff, as no candidate appears to meet the 50% threshold,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

Kimball said Fleming’s edge is stronger among men. “Fleming’s strength is among male voters, who support him over Letlow 36% to 27%; 20% of men support Cassidy. Women are more split: 27% support Letlow, 23% Cassidy, and 21% Fleming.”

By age, voters under 40 favored Cassidy at 30%, followed by Letlow at 21% and Fleming at 16%, according to the poll. Voters in their 40s and 50s were closer, with Fleming at 28%, Letlow at 24% and Cassidy at 23%. Among voters over 60, Fleming led with 32% and Letlow had 31%, while Cassidy was at 16%.

The poll also measured candidate ratings among likely Republican primary voters. Cassidy posted a 49% unfavorable rating and a 30% favorable rating, with 19% neutral. Letlow had a 40% favorable rating, 31% unfavorable, 25% neutral and 4% who said they had never heard of her. Fleming had a 42% favorable rating and 15% unfavorable, with 36% neutral and 8% who said they had not heard of him.

Asked who would be most supportive of the Trump administration’s agenda, 41% chose Letlow, 26% Fleming and 21% Cassidy. Ten percent said none of the candidates would be supportive.

The economy topped the issue list at 43%, followed by crime at 16%, education at 10%, healthcare at 9%, immigration at 8% and threats to democracy at 5%.

On carbon capture, 34% said it is a bad thing for Louisiana, 17% said it is a good thing and 49% said they were not sure.

The Emerson College Polling Louisiana survey was conducted April 24-26, 2026. The sample of likely Republican primary voters was 500, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The survey was sponsored by KLFY/Nexstar Media.

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