Jasmine Crockett Builds Sizable Lead In Tightly-Contested Primary, Shock Poll Finds

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is leading in the tightly-contested Texas Democratic Party Senate primary by a whopping 12 points, according to a new poll.

The survey, which was conducted by the University of Texas/Texas Politics, among likely Democratic primary voters, showed Crockett leading with 56 percent of the vote and Talarico trailing 44 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points for the Democratic subset.

This result represents an expansion of Crockett’s advantage compared to some earlier surveys, though polling in the race has varied over time. As of this report, Talarico maintains a lead in the RealClearPolling average, though Crockett has picked up a number of key endorsements in the race.

The March 3, primary will determine the Democratic Party nominee to face the Republican winner in the November general election for the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn. Crockett, representing a Dallas-area district in the U.S. House since 2023 after time in the Texas Legislature, has highlighted demographic changes in Texas—including growing Latino, African American, and Asian American populations—as a foundation for Democratic gains statewide. She has pointed to voting patterns in key urban and suburban counties as indicators of broader potential. Talarico, an Austin-area state representative since 2018 and a former teacher, has campaigned on progressive priorities, though she has claimed she will be picking up support from Republicans as well.

Fundraising has been a major factor in the contest, with significant sums raised and spent by both campaigns and supporting groups.

Talarico has raised more than $20 million overall since entering the race in September 2025, including $7.4 million in the first six weeks of 2026 alone. His campaign reported strong small-dollar support, with contributions from all 50 states and every Texas county, and ended 2025 with about $7.1 million cash on hand.

Crockett, who announced her candidacy in December 2025, raised approximately $6.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 (including transfers from her House campaign account totaling around $4.5 million) and had $5.6 million cash on hand at year’s end. She has continued fundraising since then, though specific updated totals beyond early February have not been detailed in recent reports.

Talarico and allied groups have outspent Crockett significantly on television advertising and other outreach, contributing to record-level spending in the primary overall.

The race has included several pointed exchanges between the candidates. Crockett has criticized a super PAC supporting Talarico for advertisements she described as darkening her skin tone and questioning her electability in ways she called racist, arguing they undermine Democrat unity.

She has also raised concerns about a major donor to Talarico-linked efforts with reported connections to Jeffrey Epstein. In response to other allegations, including reports of private comments attributed to Talarico about a former candidate, his campaign has clarified statements as relating to campaign strategy rather than personal attributes and denied any racial intent. Crockett has noted that such intra-party criticism has been unexpected, given her prior experience facing attacks primarily from Republicans.

The winner of the tightly-contested primary is one of many on the Democratic Party side of the aisle, as a close Senate primary is also underway in Maine. On the Republican side, Cornyn is locked in a tight race with a Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX).