JUST IN: Blue State Poll Shows Trump Within Margin Of Error As Kamala Campaign Flails

As the 2024 election gets closer, Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself neck and neck with former President Donald Trump in the historically blue battleground of Virginia, according to Tuesday’s Roanoke College Poll. The poll shows Harris leading Trump by a razor-thin margin of 47% to 44% in a head-to-head matchup, well within the poll’s margin of error of 4.5%. The scenario holds even when third-party candidates are considered, with Harris at 45% and Trump close behind at 42%.

The shakeup comes amid political tension and voter uncertainty. In the current six-way race, third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West have siphoned off significant support, capturing 6% and 2%, further complicating the electoral calculus. The poll also indicates a significant solidification of voter intent, with 79% of respondents very certain of their vote choice and another 18% somewhat certain.

The economy emerged as the dominant issue for nearly half of the electorate, overshadowing other concerns such as abortion and immigration. The Virginia Senate race is similarly contentious, though Democrat Senator Tim Kaine appears to have a more comfortable lead over his Republican challenger, Hung Cao, commanding a 49% to 38% advantage among likely voters. However, the undercurrents of dissatisfaction with political elites were palpable, seen by mixed feelings towards the vice-presidential picks on both tickets.

In terms of voter perceptions, the survey revealed a complex portrait of both major-party candidates. While 50% of respondents admired Trump’s “toughness” in response to recent national challenges, nearly an equal proportion viewed his actions as politically motivated. Kamala Harris is seen by a plurality of voters as more liberal than Joe Biden, with 45% believing she swings further left than the current President.

Joe Biden won Virginia by +10 in 2020. https://t.co/9bM1rf5y1j

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 20, 2024

The approval ratings for Joe Biden and the performance of Congress remain bleak. Biden’s disapproval has spiked to 62%, his highest yet due to widespread dissatisfaction with his administration’s handling of various national crises. Congress fares no better, with approval languishing around 20%.

Governor Glenn Youngkin seems to buck this trend, enjoying a surge in approval ratings following several successful policy implementations, making him a rare figure of bipartisan appeal in a deeply divided political landscape.

As the electoral season heats up, the findings from Virginia are a bellwether of national sentiment. The last time Virginia voted red in a presidential election was in 2004, when the state backed Republican incumbent George W. Bush over Democrat challenger John Kerry. Bush secured Virginia with 53.68% of the vote, compared to Kerry’s 45.48%. This victory was part of a national trend that year, which saw Bush re-elected with a clear mandate, carrying 31 states and securing 286 electoral votes against Kerry’s 251.

Virginia’s 2004 vote was influenced by traditional conservative values prevalent among its voters, particularly in rural areas and the military communities concentrated in the southeastern part of the state. These groups resonated with Bush’s policies, especially his stance on national security issues, which were a significant campaign focus following the events of September 11, 2001.

Since then, Virginia has undergone considerable demographic and political changes, shifting towards the Democrat Party in subsequent elections. The growth of the Northern Virginia region, which leans heavily Democrat due to its diverse, highly educated population and its proximity to Washington D.C., has been a major factor in this shift. This transformation has made Virginia a pivotal battleground state.

(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)