JUST IN: Dems Panic As Brutal Polling Emerges In Must-Win Senate Race

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to seize the Senate, and a new Maine poll shows one of their crucial pickup opportunities is far from secure.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins leads Democrat Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena University survey as she seeks a sixth term.

The 3-point gap falls within the poll’s roughly 5-point margin of error, with 5% undecided. That leaves a tight contest in a state central to Democrats’ push to reclaim the majority.

A loss in Maine would force Democrats to make up ground elsewhere on a Senate map that already requires them to flip four seats without surrendering any of their own. Jackson still had a 54% chance of winning as of Wednesday, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Jackson has tried to turn the contest into a referendum on President Donald Trump, tying Collins to a president who lost Maine in each of his three White House campaigns.

Collins, however, has given voters examples of where she has split with Trump. Over the summer, she criticized his tariff war with Canada and voted against confirming Todd Blanche as attorney general.

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She has also pressed an issue close to home: relief for Maine’s lobster industry.

Collins and Sen. Angus King, the Maine independent who caucuses with Democrats, last week urged the Senate Commerce Committee to consider legislation extending a pause on whaling regulations. Industry leaders have backed the Northeast Lobstermen Protection Act, which passed the House and was sponsored there by retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.

Jackson entered the Senate contest after losing June’s Democratic gubernatorial primary to former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree. The former Maine Senate president replaced Graham Platner on the ballot in July after the oyster farmer withdrew amid sexual assault allegations, which Platner denied.

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Jackson’s progressive platform includes “Medicare for All,” abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and increasing taxes on billionaires and corporations.

The poll showed sharp divisions among voters. Jackson led by 9 points among women and 18 points among those ages 30 to 44. Collins held a 16-point advantage among men and a 19-point lead among voters ages 45 to 64.

Jackson was ahead by 34 points among Hispanic respondents, while Collins led by 6 points among white respondents and 18 points among Black respondents.

The survey of 619 respondents was conducted Sept. 15-22 with the Portland Press Herald and was sponsored in part by the Maine Trust for Local News.

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